A statistical modelling approach for determining the cause of reported respiratory syndromes from internet-based participatory surveillance when influenza virus and SARS-CoV-2 are co-circulating

Scott A McDonald; Albert Jan van Hoek; Daniela Paolotti; Mariette Hooiveld; Adam Meijer; Marit de Lange; Infectieradar team; Arianne van Gageldonk-Lafeber; Jacco Wallinga

doi:10.1371/journal.pdig.0000655

A statistical modelling approach for determining the cause of reported respiratory syndromes from internet-based participatory surveillance when influenza virus and SARS-CoV-2 are co-circulating

PLOS Digit Health. 2024 Dec 9;3(12):e0000655. doi: 10.1371/journal.pdig.0000655. eCollection 2024 Dec.

Authors

Scott A McDonald¹, Albert Jan van Hoek¹, Daniela Paolotti², Mariette Hooiveld³, Adam Meijer¹, Marit de Lange¹; Infectieradar team; Arianne van Gageldonk-Lafeber¹, Jacco Wallinga^{1

4}

Affiliations

¹ Centre for Infectious Disease Control, Netherlands National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, the Netherlands.
² Institute for Scientific Interchange Foundation, Torino, Italy.
³ Nivel, Utrecht, the Netherlands.
⁴ Department of Biomedical Data Sciences, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, the Netherlands.

Abstract

Symptom-only case definitions are insufficient to discriminate COVID-like illness from acute respiratory infection (ARI) or influenza-like illness (ILI), due to the overlap in case definitions. Our objective was to develop a statistical method that does not rely on case definitions to determine the contribution of influenza virus and SARS-CoV-2 to the ARI burden during periods when both viruses are circulating. Data sources used for testing the approach were weekly ARI syndrome reports from the Infectieradar participatory syndromic surveillance system during the analysis period (the first 25 weeks of 2022, in which SARS-CoV-2 and influenza virus co-circulated in the Netherlands) and data from virologically tested ARI (including ILI) patients who consulted a general practitioner in the same period. Estimation of the proportions of ARI attributable to influenza virus, SARS-CoV-2, or another cause was framed as an inference problem, through which all data sources are combined within a Bayesian framework to infer the weekly numbers of ARI reports attributable to each cause. Posterior distributions for the attribution proportions were obtained using Markov Chain Monte-Carlo methods. Application of the approach to the example data sources indicated that, of the total ARI reports (total of 11,312; weekly mean of 452) during the analysis period, the model attributed 35.4% (95% CrI: 29.2-40.0%) and 27.0% (95% CrI: 19.3-35.2%) to influenza virus and SARS-CoV-2, respectively. The proposed statistical model allows the attribution of respiratory syndrome reports from participatory surveillance to either influenza virus or SARS-CoV-2 infection in periods when both viruses are circulating, but comparability of the participatory surveillance and virologically tested populations is important. Portability for use by other countries with established participatory respiratory surveillance systems is an asset.

Copyright: © 2024 McDonald et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

Grants and funding

This work was supported by the European Union’s Horizon Europe VERDI project (Grant agreement number 101045989) to DP. This work reflects only the authors’ views. The European Commission is not responsible for any use that may be made of the information it contains. The funder had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.