Nomogram model based on γ-glutamyl transferase to albumin ratio predicts survival in hepatocellular carcinoma patients with transarterial chemoembolization treatment

Background: The development of tumor is closely linked to inflammation. Therefore, targeting molecules involved in inflammation may be effective in predicting cancer prognosis. Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) holds significant therapeutic significance in addressing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). At present, no studies have evaluated the predictive value of γ-glutamyl transferase to albumin ratio (GAR) on the prognosis of HCC undergoing TACE.

Aim: To explore the potential prognostic significance of the GAR in individuals undergoing TACE for HCC.

Methods: A total of 1231 patients from seven hospitals in China were randomized into a training cohort (n = 862) and a validation cohort (n = 369). To establish independent prognostic factors for overall survival (OS), we utilized multivariate and univariate Cox regression models. The best cut-off value of the GAR was determined with the X-tile software, with OS as the basis. Validations were performed using dual therapy cohort and triple therapy cohort.

Results: X-tile software revealed a GAR threshold of 4.75 as optimal. Both pre- and post-propensity score matching analyses demonstrated that the median OS in the low-GAR group (< 4.75) was notably longer compared to the high-GAR group (≥ 4.75), showing results of 26.9 vs 9.8 months (P < 0.001) initially, and 18.1 vs 11.3 months (P < 0.001) after match. Furthermore, multivariate analysis identified GAR ≥ 4.75 as an independent prognostic factor (P < 0.001). The receiver operating characteristic curves for the nomogram showed area under receiver operating characteristic curves of 0.741, 0.747, and 0.708 for predicting 1-, 2-, and 3-year survival, respectively. Consistent findings were reiterated in the two cohorts involving TACE in combination with targeted therapy and TACE in combination with targeted therapy and immunotherapy. Calibration curve and decision curve analyses substantiated the model's relatively robust predictive capabilities.

Conclusion: Our study validates the effective prognostic capacity of the GAR-based nomogram for HCC patients undergoing TACE or TACE in combination with systemic therapy.