[Spatial-temporal distribution of newly reported HIV/AIDS cases in Henan Province, 1995-2020]

Objective: To identify the spatial clustering and its temporal trends among newly reported HIV/AIDS cases in Henan Province during 1995-2020, and to provide evidence for strategies on prevention and control of the disease. Methods: Information about newly reported HIV/AIDS cases in Henan between 1995 and 2020 were obtained from China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention and to describe their demographic characteristics, spatial autocorrelation and changing trends. This program was conducted at county level, using the ArcGIS 10.2. Results: A total of 96 528 HIV/AIDS cases with complete current address information in counties (districts) were newly reported during 1995-2020 in Henan, and the spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that Global Moran's I index was 0.249, Z_G value of the Global Getis-Ord G coefficient was 6.472 (all P<0.001), indicating that there was a high clustered positive spatial autocorrelation of HIV/AIDS. The newly reported HIV/AIDS cases from 1995 to 2000, 2001 to 2005, 2006 to 2010, 2011 to 2015, and 2016 to 2020 in Henan Province all exhibited high values of global spatial clustering. Their Moran's I indices were 0.197, 0.103, 0.491, 0.411 and 0.383, respectively. The Z_G values of the Global Getis-Ord G coefficient were 4.580, 3.386, 10.246, 8.378 and 8.093, respectively. All of global spatial correlation were statistically significant (all P<0.001). The results of local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that newly reported HIV/AIDS cases in Henan Province had high-high clustering areas at each time stage mentioned above. The number of high-high clustering counties/districts gradually increased from 6 in 2001-2005 to 21 in 2016-2020, spreading from Zhumadian City and Zhoukou City in southeast Henan to Nanyang City in southwest Henan, Zhengzhou City and its surrounding counties/districts in central Henan. Conclusions: In Henan Province, an increasing trend of clusters appeared on HIV epidemic among newly reported HIV/AIDS cases from 1995 to 2020, and high-high clustering areas gradually expanded from Zhumadian City and Zhoukou City to Nanyang City, Zhengzhou City and its surrounding counties/districts, indicating that it is necessary to strengthen the AIDS prevention and control programs in these areas in Henan.