Impact of late rainy season indoor residual spraying on holoendemic malaria transmission: a cohort study in northern Zambia

Background: Indoor residual spraying (IRS) is a malaria control strategy implemented before the rainy season. Nchelenge District, Zambia is a holoendemic setting where IRS has been conducted since 2008 with little impact on malaria incidence or parasite prevalence. Pre-rainy season IRS may not reduce the post-rainy season peak abundance of the major vector, Anopheles funestus.

Methods: A controlled, pre-post, prospective cohort study assessed the impact of late-rainy season IRS on malaria prevalence, incidence, hazard, and vector abundance. Three hundred eighty-two individuals were enrolled across four household clusters, of which two were sprayed in April 2022 toward the end of the rainy season. Monthly household and individual surveys and indoor overnight vector collections were conducted through August 2022. Multivariate regression and time-to-event analyses estimated the impact of IRS on outcomes measured by rapid diagnostic tests, microscopy, and quantitative polymerase chain reaction.

Results: Seventy two percent of participants tested positive by rapid diagnostic test at least once and incidence by microscopy was 3.4 infections per person-year. Residing in a household in a sprayed area was associated with a 52% reduction in infection hazard (hazards ratio: 0.48, 95% confidence interval [0.29, 0.78]) but not with changes in incidence, prevalence, or vector abundance. The study-wide entomological inoculation rate was 34 infectious bites per person per year.

Conclusion: Monthly tracking of incidence and prevalence did not demonstrate meaningful changes in holoendemic transmission intensity. However, hazard of infection, which provides greater power for detecting changes in transmission, demonstrated that late rainy season IRS reduced malaria risk.