Prognostic value of early response in predicting survival in hepatocellular carcinoma patients treated with selective internal radiation therapy

Objectives: This study evaluates the prognostic value of tumor response on CT at 3 months, assessed by Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST), modified RECIST (mRECIST), and Liver Imaging Reporting and Data System Treatment Response Algorithm (LR-TRA) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treated with selective internal radiation therapy (SIRT).

Materials and methods: A retrospective analysis was conducted on 102 HCC patients treated with SIRT between 2018 and 2020. RECIST, mRECIST, and LR-TRA were assessed at 3 months post-SIRT. Overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were assessed using Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox proportional-hazards models.

Results: The median age was 71 years, and most patients (90%) had advanced-stage tumors (Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer-C). After a median follow-up of 32.0 months (95% CI: 16.8-60.9), 60/102 patients died (59%), and 90/102 patients showed tumor progression (88%). Median OS was 20.4 months (95% CI: 15.4-33.0), and median PFS was 14.5 months (95% CI: 6.5-24.5); 1-year OS and PFS rates were 65.6% and 50.7%. Multivariable analysis revealed that early response according to RECIST 1.1 (HR 1.66, p = 0.30), mRECIST (HR 1.40, p = 0.215), and LR-TRA (HR 0.67, p = 0.30) were not predictors of OS. Disease progression evaluated by RECIST (HR 2.55, p < 0.001) and mRECIST (HR 2.53, p < 0.001), bilirubin levels (HR 1.03, p < 0.001), and prothrombin time (HR 0.98, p = 0.005) were predictors of OS. For PFS, neither RECIST nor mRECIST response, disease progression, nor LR-TRA viability were predictors.

Conclusion: In this advanced-stage HCC population, early response assessed by RECIST, mRECIST, and LR-TRA criteria did not predict OS or PFS after SIRT. However, early disease progression and liver function indicators were prognostic factors for OS.

Key points: QuestionHow well does early tumor response, assessed at 3 months post-selective internal radiation therapy (SIRT), predict survival in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients? Findings Early response, assessed by RECIST, mRECIST, and LR-TRA, did not predict overall or progression-free survival; disease progression and liver function indicators were significant predictors. Clinical relevance This study highlights the limitations of early imaging criteria in predicting survival outcomes in advanced HCC post-SIRT, suggesting the need for alternative or complementary prognostic indicators to guide treatment decisions.