Climate displaces deposition as dominant driver of dissolved organic carbon concentrations in historically acidified lakes

Climate and atmospheric deposition interact with watershed properties to drive dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations in lakes. Because drivers of DOC concentration are inter-related and interact, it is challenging to assign a single dominant driver to changes in lake DOC concentration across spatiotemporal scales. Leveraging forty years of data across sixteen lakes, we used structural equation modeling to show that the impact of climate, as moderated by watershed characteristics, has become more dominant in recent decades, superseding the influence of sulfate deposition that was observed in the 1980s. An increased percentage of winter precipitation falling as rain was associated with elevated spring DOC concentrations, suggesting a mechanistic coupling between climate and DOC increases that will persist in coming decades as northern latitudes continue to warm. Drainage lakes situated in watersheds with fine-textured, deep soils and larger watershed areas exhibit greater variability in lake DOC concentrations compared to both seepage and drainage lakes with coarser, shallower soils, and smaller watershed areas. Capturing the spatial variability in interactions between climatic impacts and localized watershed characteristics is crucial for forecasting lentic carbon and nutrient dynamics, with implications for lake ecology and drinking water quality.

Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10533-024-01193-5.