The Association of County-Level Presidential Election Outcome and COVID-19 Mortality in Colorado, 2020-2022

Kelly A DeBie; Margaret J Gutilla; Kayleigh P Keller; Jennifer L Peel; David Rojas-Rueda; Andreas M Neophytou

doi:10.1097/PHH.0000000000002098

The Association of County-Level Presidential Election Outcome and COVID-19 Mortality in Colorado, 2020-2022

J Public Health Manag Pract. 2024 Dec 26. doi: 10.1097/PHH.0000000000002098. Online ahead of print.

Authors

Kelly A DeBie^{1

2}, Margaret J Gutilla^{1

2}, Kayleigh P Keller^{1

2}, Jennifer L Peel^{1

2}, David Rojas-Rueda^{1

2}, Andreas M Neophytou^{1

2}

Affiliations

¹ Author Affiliations: Department of Environmental and Radiological Health Sciences (Drs DeBie, Peel, Rojas-Rueda, and Neophytou), Colorado School of Public Health (Drs Gutilla, Keller, Peel, Rojas-Rueda, and Neophytou), Department of Health and Exercise Science (Dr Gutilla), and Department of Statistics (Dr Keller), Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado.
² Department of Health and Exercise Science (Dr Gutilla), and Department of Statistics & Colorado School of Public Health (Dr Keller), Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado.

PMID: 39724050
DOI: 10.1097/PHH.0000000000002098

Abstract

Context: The Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic occurred during a time of political tension in the United States. County-level political environment may have been influential in COVID-19 outcomes.

Objective: This study examined the association between county-level political environment and age-adjusted COVID-19 mortality rates from 2020 to 2022.

Design setting: Political environment was measured by the 2020 Presidential election results and compared with age-adjusted COVID-19 mortality rates by county in Colorado.

Main outcome measures: Rate ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using negative binomial regression incorporating a population offset term. Models adjusted for populational differences using the demographics percentile from Colorado's EnviroScreen Environmental Justice Tool.

Results: Age-adjusted county mortality rates ranged from 14.3 to 446.8.0 per 100 000. 2021 COVID-19 mortality rates were nearly twice as high in counties voting for Donald Trump compared to those voting for Joseph Biden (adjusted RR = 1.98, 95% CI: 1.59, 2.47). Results for 2020 and 2022 mortality models were also in the positive direction, though the confidence intervals crossed null values.

Conclusion: These results build on a growing body of evidence that political environment may have been influential for COVID-19 mortality, helping to understand the drivers of health outcomes. Implications for the public health system as we shift into the endemic period of COVID-19 include motivation for collaborative work to restore and rebuild trust among and between stakeholders and the community, as well as increase health education given its' influence on both individual and community behaviors.