The association between different timeframes of air pollution exposure and COVID-19 incidence, morbidity and mortality in German counties in 2020

Background: Ambient air pollution is a known risk factor for several chronic health conditions, including pulmonary dysfunction. In recent years, studies have shown a positive association between exposure to air pollutants and the incidence, morbidity, and mortality of a COVID-19 infection, however the time period for which air pollution exposure is most relevant for the COVID-19 outcome is still not defined. The aim of this study was to analyze the difference in association when varying the time period of air pollution exposure considered on COVID-19 infection within the same cohort during the first wave of the pandemic in 2020.

Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study analyzing the association between long- (10- and 2-years) and short-term (28 days, 7 days, and 2 days) exposure to NO₂ and PM_2.5 on SARS-CoV-2 incidence, morbidity, and mortality at the level of county during the first outbreak of the pandemic in spring 2020. Health data were extracted from the German national public health institute (Robert-Koch-Institute) and from the German Interdisciplinary Association for Intensive Care and Emergency Medicine. Air pollution data were taken from the APExpose dataset (version 2.0). We used negative binomial models, including adjustment for risk factors (age, sex, days since first COVID-19 case, population density, socio-economic and health parameters).

Results: We found that PM_2.5 and NO₂ exposure 28 days before COVID-19 infection had the highest association with infection, morbidity as well as mortality, as compared to long-term or short-term (2 or 7 days) air pollutant exposure. A 1 μg/m³ increase in PM_2.5 was associated with a 31.7% increase in incidence, a 20.6% need for ICU treatment, a 23.1% need for mechanical ventilation, and a 55.3% increase in mortality; an increase of 1 μg/m³ of NO₂ was associated with an increase for all outcomes by 25.2 - 29.4%.

Conclusions: Our findings show a positive association between PM_2.5 and NO₂ exposure and the clinical course of a SARS-CoV2 infection, with the strongest association to 28 days of exposure to air pollution. This finding provides an indication as to the primary underlying pathophysiology, and can therefore help to improve the resilience of societies by implementing adequate measures to reduce the air pollutant impact on health outcomes.

Trial registration: Not applicable.