Global spatiotemporal characterization factors for freshwater eutrophication under climate change scenarios

Konstantina Vasilakou; Philippe Nimmegeers; Yuan Yao; Pieter Billen; Steven Van Passel

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.178275

Global spatiotemporal characterization factors for freshwater eutrophication under climate change scenarios

Sci Total Environ. 2024 Dec 30:959:178275. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.178275. Online ahead of print.

Authors

Konstantina Vasilakou¹, Philippe Nimmegeers², Yuan Yao³, Pieter Billen⁴, Steven Van Passel⁵

Affiliations

¹ Environmental Economics (EnvEcon), Department of Engineering Management, Faculty of Business and Economics, University of Antwerp, Prinsstraat 13, 2000 Antwerp, Belgium; Intelligence in Processes, Advanced Catalysts and Solvents (iPRACS), Faculty of Applied Engineering, University of Antwerp, Groenenborgerlaan 171, 2020 Antwerp, Belgium; Flanders Make@UAntwerp, 2000 Antwerp, Belgium. Electronic address: [email protected].
² Environmental Economics (EnvEcon), Department of Engineering Management, Faculty of Business and Economics, University of Antwerp, Prinsstraat 13, 2000 Antwerp, Belgium; Flanders Make@UAntwerp, 2000 Antwerp, Belgium; NANOlight Centre of Excellence, Prinsstraat 13, 2000 Antwerp, Belgium. Electronic address: [email protected].
³ Center for Industrial Ecology, Yale School of the Environment, Yale University, 06511 New Haven, CT, United States; Chemical and Environmental Engineering, Yale School of Engineering and Applied Science, Yale University, 06511 New Haven, CT, United States. Electronic address: [email protected].
⁴ Intelligence in Processes, Advanced Catalysts and Solvents (iPRACS), Faculty of Applied Engineering, University of Antwerp, Groenenborgerlaan 171, 2020 Antwerp, Belgium. Electronic address: [email protected].
⁵ Environmental Economics (EnvEcon), Department of Engineering Management, Faculty of Business and Economics, University of Antwerp, Prinsstraat 13, 2000 Antwerp, Belgium; Flanders Make@UAntwerp, 2000 Antwerp, Belgium; NANOlight Centre of Excellence, Prinsstraat 13, 2000 Antwerp, Belgium. Electronic address: [email protected].

PMID: 39740621
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.178275

Abstract

Nutrient enrichment of water bodies can lead to eutrophication, which poses a global threat to freshwater ecosystems, affecting biodiversity and water quality. While human activities have accelerated eutrophication, climate change further complicates the dynamics of nutrient cycling and ecosystem responses. Here, we provide global, spatially explicit freshwater eutrophication characterization factors, at an annual resolution from 2021 up to 2099 based on eight different climate change scenarios. A substantial spatial and temporal variability is identified, with higher characterization factors observed in tropical and arid regions, as well as densely populated areas, revealing a location-specific influence of climate change on eutrophication impacts. A comparison between different Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios suggests that climate change intensifies the eutrophication impact of phosphorus and its fluctuations, with hotspots identified in central and south America, Australia, southeastern Asia, central Africa and eastern Europe. Results highlight the importance of spatially- and temporally-explicit characterization factors, especially in prospective life cycle assessments. Finally, novel insights are provided into the complex interactions between nutrient fate, hydrological dynamics, and climate change, crucial for the development of phosphorus emission control strategies and the protection of freshwater ecosystems.

Keywords: Characterization factors; Climate change; Dynamic; Freshwater eutrophication; Life cycle assessment; Spatial.