Predicting Severity of Acute Pancreatitis-Evaluation of Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Count Ratio as Emerging Biomarker: A Retrospective Analytical Study

Introduction Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a pancreatic inflammatory disease that can range in severity from mild, self-limiting forms to severe cases with high mortality rates. AP has various etiologies, including lifestyle factors like alcohol consumption and obesity, and its rapid progression makes early and accurate prediction of severity critical for effective management and improved patient outcomes. The traditional AP severity assessment tools, such as Ranson's criteria and APACHE II, require extensive data and time, making them less feasible in emergency settings. In response, simpler biomarkers that can quickly predict AP severity upon patient presentation are needed to enable early risk stratification and targeted interventions. The study aims to address this research gap by evaluating the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) as a potential biomarker for predicting AP severity, as well as assessing its correlation with the CT Severity Index, a widely used measure of AP severity. Methods The study used a retrospective analytical design, conducted at the R L Jalappa Hospital & Research Centre in Karnataka, India. The researchers included 118 patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis (AP) according to the Revised Atlanta Classification. The dataset collected from the participants' medical records included variables such as age, gender, history of alcohol and tobacco use, duration of abdominal pain, ICU stay, CT Severity Index scores, and the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR). Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS software version 21.0 (IBM Corp., Armonk, NY, USA). A p-value of less than 0.05 was considered statistically significant. This comprehensive methodological approach aimed to provide precise insights into the role of NLR in predicting AP severity while accounting for variability in patient data. Results The study included 118 patients, with 85 classified as having mild to moderate pancreatitis and 33 with severe pancreatitis. There were no significant differences between the two groups in terms of demographic factors such as gender, BMI, alcohol use, smoking, and comorbidities. The study also examined the relationship between the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and the CT Severity Index, a measure of pancreatitis severity. The results showed a strong positive correlation between NLR and the CT Severity Index (r = 0.860, p < 0.001). This indicates that higher NLR values are associated with more severe pancreatitis, as measured by the CT Severity Index. These relationships suggest that NLR reflects the inflammatory response in acute pancreatitis, with higher levels of inflammatory markers associated with elevated NLR values. Conclusion This study aimed to evaluate the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) as a biomarker for predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis (AP). We conducted a retrospective analysis of 118 AP patients, categorizing them into mild-to-moderate and severe groups. NLR was significantly higher in the severe AP group compared to the mild-to-moderate group, suggesting its potential as an early predictor of AP severity. The study also examined the correlation between NLR and the CT Severity Index, a widely used measure of AP severity, further supporting the utility of NLR as a rapid and accessible tool for risk stratification in AP management.