Global and Regional Patterns in Edentulism (1990-2021) With Predictions to 2040

Aims: Edentulism's impact on overall well-being is widely recognized, but there is limited information on regional and sex disparities in its global burden. This study aims to fill this gap by providing an updated picture of edentulism's burden by region and sex and predicting its global trend for the next 2 decades.

Methods: This study analyzed and reported Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data on the prevalence, incidence, and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) of edentulism, with a breakdown by sex and sociodemographic index (SDI). Epidemiological trends from 1990 to 2021 were characterized using Joinpoint regression analysis. An Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was used to forecast edentulism prevalence trends from 2022 to 2040.

Results: A double increase was found in the number of people with edentulism during the last 30 years. A decrease in the incidence rate of edentulism was found in younger age groups, and a shift in the peak age of prevalence from 70-74 in 1990 to 75-79 in 2021. Females had a higher prevalence rate of edentulism than males globally, with a disproportionate burden in regions of high SDI countries. The global prevalence rate is projected to increase to 5,004 individuals per 100,000 in 2040.

Conclusion: These results indicate that edentulism continues to be a significant global public health concern, particularly as its prevalence is expected to rise with the aging population.

Clinical relevance: Public and clinical preventative measures against edentulism is imperative for the welling being of the population, especially in female group.