The progression of basaltic-rhyolitic melt storage at Yellowstone Caldera

Yellowstone Caldera is one of the largest volcanic systems on Earth, hosting three major caldera-forming eruptions in the past two million years, interspersed with periods of less explosive, smaller-volume eruptions¹. Caldera-forming eruptions at Yellowstone are sourced by rhyolitic melts stored within the mid- to upper crust. Seismic tomography studies have suggested that a broad region of rhyolitic melt extends beneath Yellowstone Caldera, with an estimated melt volume that is one to four times greater than the eruptive volume of the largest past caldera-forming eruption, and an estimated melt fraction of 6-28 per cent^2-5. Seismic velocity is strongly influenced by temperature, pressure and melt; however, magnetotelluric data are primarily sensitive to the presence of melt, making these data ideal for constraining volcanic systems. Here we utilize magnetotelluric data to model the resistivity structure of Yellowstone Caldera's crustal magma reservoir and constrain the region's potential for producing major volcanic eruptions. We find that rhyolitic melts are stored in segregated regions beneath the caldera with low melt fractions, indicating that the reservoirs are not eruptible. Typically, these regions have melt volumes equivalent to small-volume post-caldera Yellowstone eruptions. The largest region of rhyolitic melt storage, concentrated beneath northeast Yellowstone Caldera, has a storage volume similar to the eruptive volume of Yellowstone's smallest caldera-forming eruption. We identify regions of basalt migrating from the lower crust, merging with and supplying heat to the northeast region of rhyolitic melt storage. On the basis of our analysis, we suggest that the locus of future rhyolitic volcanism has shifted to northeast Yellowstone Caldera.