Late-onset depression (LOD) refers to depression that newly appears in elderly individuals without prior depression episodes. Predicting future depression is crucial for mitigating the risk of major depression in prospective patients. This study aims to develop machine learning models to predict future depression. Using public data from the nationwide panel survey 'Korean Longitudinal Study of Aging,' we employed latent growth modeling and growth mixture modeling to identify four latent classes of depression trajectories in the elderly Korean population. Based on the results of binary logistic regression, we selected 12 variables capable of distinguishing the LOD population from the reference population and tested 12 machine learning (ML) algorithms. While most ML algorithms showed acceptable predictive capability, Random Forest Classifier and Gradient Boosting Classifier demonstrated superior performance. Consequently, we successfully established new ML-based LOD prediction programs. These programs could be further developed into self-checking online tools, expected to serve as decision support systems for primary medical care and health screening services.
Keywords: Depression trajectories; Late-onset depression; Longitudinal study of aging; Machine learning algorithms; Predictive performance.
© 2025. The Author(s).