Burden of type 2 diabetes due to high body mass index in different SDI regions and projections of future trends: insights from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 study

Aim: The aim of our study was to assess the impact of high body mass index (BMI) on type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in different Socio-Demographic Development Index (SDI) regions using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study.

Methods: Using data from the GBD study, the burden of disease for T2DM was measured by analyzing the age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rate (ASDR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) for type 2 diabetes due to high BMI and the associated estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Decomposition analyses, frontier analyses, and predictive models were used to analyze changes and influencing factors for each metric.

Results: The study revealed the significant global health burden of T2DM induced by high BMI, which EAPC of 1.82 with confidence intervals (CI) ranging from 1.78 to 1.87 for disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and 0.85 with CIs ranging from 0.77 to 0.93 for mortality. The results of the analysis emphasized the geographic variability of T2DM disease burden associated with SDI Within the area covered by the study, a decreasing trend in ASMR for T2DM was observed in high SDI areas, with an EAPC value of - 1.07 and a confidence interval ranging from - 1.39 to - 0.76. At the same time, in the other SDI areas, the ASMR and ASDR for T2DM showed an increasing trend. In addition, the study noted that individuals in the 65- to 75-year-old age group accounted for a higher proportion of T2DM-related deaths and DALYs, with females affected at a greater rate than males. Projections for future trends indicate that the ASDR and ASMR for T2DM are expected to continue an upward trajectory over the next decade.

Conclusion: This study investigates the variation in T2DM burden attributable to high BMI across regions with different SDI levels. The analysis reveals that, in high-SDI regions, the ASMR decreased from 1990 to 2021 and stabilized around 4.4 deaths per 100,000 people, while the ASDR increased, reaching approximately 416 cases per 100,000 people in 2021. Conversely, both ASDR and ASMR exhibited an upward trend in other SDI regions over the same period.