Global Trends in Prevalence and Future Projections of Pelvic Organ Prolapse: A 30-year Epidemiological Study

Introduction: Pelvic organ prolapse (POP) is a widespread disease in women. Despite its significant prevalence, there is a lack of comprehensive global studies, emphasizing the urgent need for tailored prevention and treatment approaches. This study aims to examine the global burden of POP from 1990 to 2021 and project future trends using the GBD data.

Methods: Data were collected from the GBD 2021 database. A Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to analyze the trends and predict future burden, with age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) and years lived with disability (YLD) as key metrics.

Results: In 2021, the global ASPR and age-standardized YLD rate of POP were 2769.4 (95% UI 2299.2-3298.2) and 8.5 (95% UI 4.1-16.2) per 100,000 people, respectively. Both ASPR and YLD rate decreased between 1990 and 2021. The burden of POP is highest in low-SDI regions. The global prevalence of POP was highest in the 80+ age group, while the absolute number of cases reached its peak in the 55-59 age group. By 2036, the global population of POP patients will reach 156 million. Additionally, both the ASPR and AS-YLD rates of POP will continue to decline over the next 15 years.

Conclusion: While the global burden of POP decreased between 1990 and 2021, ASPRs in regions with low SDI remained high. With the gradual aging population, POP will continue to pose a significant burden on women's health and the social economy in the future. Strengthening global surveillance and prevention efforts for POP remains a critical challenge.