Objective: To estimate and compare the societal impact of HIV infection and AIDS with other selected causes of male mortality in terms of the indirect costs of future production lost.
Design: Descriptive, population-based economic evaluation study.
Patients: All men aged 25-64 years for whom HIV/AIDS or another selected disease was listed as the underlying cause of death in Canada from 1987 to 1991, as reported to Statistics Canada.
Setting: Canada.
Main outcome measures: Present value of future earnings lost for men using a human capital approach based on potential years of life lost in men aged 25-64 years.
Results: Assuming a 2% annual growth in earnings and a 3% annual real discount rate, the present value of the total loss of future production for all men aged 25-64 years who died in Canada during 1987-1991 was estimated to be 39.74 billion 1990 US$. Deaths due to HIV/AIDS accounted for 5.3% of this total loss or 2.11 billion in 1990 US$. Future production loss due to HIV/AIDS more than doubled during the period from 1987 to 1991, from 0.27 to 0.60 billion 1990 US$. The loss in future earnings attributable to HIV/AIDS was exceeded only by that of ischaemic heart disease (15.2%), suicide (9.4%), motor vehicle accidents (6.6%), and lung cancer (6.6%). In total, these five causes of death accounted for 43.1% of the total indirect cost of production lost for men aged 25-64 years during the 5-year period.
Conclusion: Our findings demonstrated HIV/AIDS mortality is already having a dramatic impact on future wealth production in Canada. If the past trend continues, the production lost in 1994 should exceed 0.86 billion 1990 US$ and will account for more than 10% of the total annual loss for men aged 25-64 years.