Objective: We assessed the relative risk of both serum TSH and antithyroid antibody concentrations with regard to progression of thyroid failure and studied the lipid profiles of individuals with elevated TSH levels.
Design, patients and measurements: In a randomly selected group of 427 women aged 40-60 (mean 55) years volunteering in an epidemiological survey in Zoetermeer, TSH and thyroid microsomal antibodies (TMA) were determined. Ten years after the initial survey only TSH was measured and the lipid profiles of the individuals with elevated serum TSH levels were studied and compared with a reference group.
Results: During follow-up, four of 427 women were treated with thyroxine. Seventeen of 423 women initially had elevated serum concentrations of TSH (> 4.2 mU/l), 11 of whom were TMA positive. In the group of 406 women with initially a normal TSH, nine out of 37 (24%) TMA-positive women developed elevated serum levels of TSH over 10 years. In contrast only 10 of 369 (3%) TMA-negative women had elevated serum TSH levels 10 years after the initial survey (P < 0.001). Altogether, at the end of the observation period, 40% of TMA-positive subjects had elevated serum TSH concentrations, compared to 3% in the TMA-negative group (P < 0.01). TSH levels in the upper part of the normal range also appeared to have a predictive value: if those both with TSH levels between 2.0 and 4.2 and with a positive TMA status were contrasted with those without antibodies and low TSH, the crude relative risk was 71.5 (31.0-164.3), whereas the crude relative risk of presence versus absence of TMA was only 36.3 (18.8-70.3). Women with elevated TSH levels did not show changes in serum concentrations of total cholesterol (7.4 +/- 1.1 mmol/l), apo-A, (4.7 +/- 1.0 mmol/l) and apo-B (3.1 +/- 0.7 mmol/l) lipoproteins, compared with control individuals (7.2 +/- 1.3, 4.7 +/- 0.8 and 3.0 +/- 0.7 mmol/l, respectively).
Conclusions: The determination of serum TMA in middle-aged women can identify an important group of women at risk of developing an elevated serum TSH. TMA measurement is of potential use in the prevention of cardiovascular disease. An elevated serum TSH, however, in our study-group does not seem to be accompanied by an abnormal lipid profile, as reported by others.