Whether subjective memory complaints in the absence of objective memory decline can predict future dementia has been investigated only in highly selected clinical and volunteer cohorts. Our study examines this question in a subsample of AMSTEL (Amsterdam Study of the Elderly), a longitudinal population study on cognitive decline and dementia. Subjects (aged 65 to 84 years; n = 357) without dementia or other psychiatric disorders at baseline were followed for 3 years. After this interval, 16 of 203 re-examined patients developed a dementia. Logistic regression analyses indicated that memory complaints at baseline contributed a small but significant amount of diagnostic information. However, the most powerful predictor of future dementia was deficient memory performance. We conclude that subjective memory complaints may predict dementia within 3 years, particularly when there are objective signs of memory deterioration.