Background and objective: In retrospective studies of non-melanoma skin cancers, the recurrence rates were relatively high. This study had as its aim to determine the recurrence rate of nonmelanoma skin cancer (NMSC) and prospectively, risk factors for recurrence in southern Australia.
Study design: This is a prospective study of outpatients with histologically confirmed NMSC. All patients seen by a dermatologist between November 1988 and November 1989 were entered into the study and followed for at least 3 years. Any recurrent NMSCS were removed and recorded.
Results: Four hundred and eighty-one patients were entered and 420 followed for at least 3 years. A recurrent NMSC developed in 8% (adjusted for losses). A multivariate analysis determined that the main risk factor for recurrence within the first 3 years of follow-up was the number of NMSC a patient had when entering into the study. Those with 3 to nine NMSC were five times more likely to develop a recurrence than those with less than three NMSC. Those with 10 or more NMSC were 25 times more likely to develop a recurrence. Age, sex, and types of skin cancers removed were not risk factors within the first 3 years of follow-up.
Conclusion: Patients who have had multiple skin cancers require careful follow-up because of the risk of developing recurrences.