Introduction and objectives: Since physiological pacing systems have become available, a debate has raged about the merits of atrial versus ventricular pacing in the sick sinus syndrome. The goal of this retrospective report was to study the long term incidence and the independent predictors for atrial fibrillation and stroke in 153 paced patients with sick sinus syndrome, adjusting for differences in baseline clinical variables with multivariate analysis.
Method and results: From 1980 to 1994, we implanted 32 dualchamber, 33 atrial, and 88 ventricular pacemakers to treat patients with sick sinus syndrome. After a maximum follow-up of 177 months (median 30 months for paroxismal atrial fibrillation, 45 months for chronic atrial fibrillation and 43,5 months for stroke) the actuarial incidence of paroximal atrial fibrillation was 7.8% at 1 year, 29% at 5 years and 42% at 10 years. The actuarial incidence of chronic atrial fibrillation was 1.3% at 1 year, 9.8% at 5 years and 22% at 10 years. Independent predictors for paroxismal AF from Cox's model was history of atrial tachyarrhythmias (p < 0.0001), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (p = 0,006) and age (> 70 years-old) (p = 0.035). Only a history of atrial tachyarrhythmias before pacemaker implant was an independent predictor for chronic atrial fibrillation (p < 0.0001). The odd ratio for paroxismal atrial fibrillation in patients with previous atrial tachyarrhythmias and chronic atrial fibrillation were 6 (2.8-12) and 4 (1.6-9.7) (95% confiance limits). Actuarial incidence of stroke was 3% at 1 year, 10% at 5 years and 14% at 10 years. Independent predictors for stroke were history of peripheral vascular disease (p = 0.033) and hypertensive cardiomyopathy (p = 0.015). Development of paroxysmal and chronic atrial fibrillation during the follow-up were higher in patients with stroke (p < 0.001 and p < 0.05).
Conclusions: Development of atrial fibrillation and stroke in paced patients with sick sinus syndrome are strongly determined by clinical variables. Preimplant paroxysmal atrial tachyarrhythmias is the most important predictor for atrial fibrillation in the follow-up.