Steady state levels of HIV-1 genomic RNA and unintegrated circular DNA fluctuate in the course of HIV-1 infection. Genomic RNA in serum was detected using the NASBA technique and the amount of circular DNA was assessed by PCR. Quantification was done by competitive techniques using co-amplification of internal standards. Within the Amsterdam Cohort Studies it was possible to distinguish rapid progressors, intermediate progressors, slow progressors and non-progressors. Rapid progressors show persistently high viral RNA loads from seroconversion on, while all other HIV-1-infected individuals show a steady decline after seroconversion. Subsequent rises in viral RNA levels herald disease progression in later stages of infection. Unintegrated circular DNA shows similar, but somewhat delayed kinetics. These results indicate that the distribution of AIDS and the average length of the symptom-free period in an HIV-1-infected host population is determined by the steady state levels of genomic RNA and of replication intermediates that are produced by a particular HIV-1 virus population in the average seropositive individual.