Objectives: Amebic liver abscess (ALA) is being increasingly recognized with the progressive spread of AIDS. The prognosis of ALA needs to be determined to decide whether aggressive intervention therapy should be used. A prospective study was conducted to determine the factors that predicted mortality in patients with ALA.
Methods: The study population consisted of 135 consecutive patients with ALA who were treated with 80 mg/kg/day of metronidazole for 10 days if they survived. Needle aspiration or open surgical drainage was performed in patients who deteriorated despite drug therapy or had an abscess that clinically appeared to be at risk of impending rupture. Survivors and nonsurvivors were compared by univariate and multivariate analysis to identify predictors of outcome. These predictors were then prospectively evaluated in a subsequent cohort of patients with ALA.
Results: Twenty-four patients died during the acute phase. Significant differences between survivors and nonsurvivors were observed. A stepwise logistic regression suggested that a bilirubin level >3.5 mg/dl, encephalopathy, volume of abscess cavity, hypoalbuminemia (serum albumin level <2.0 g/dl), and the number of abscesses were independent risk factors for mortality. The duration of symptoms and type of treatment did not influence mortality. The regression equation derived was then applied prospectively to 64 subsequent patients with ALA, and the validity of the prediction rule was confirmed. The qualities of simplicity, availability, low cost of derivation, and good discriminating power suggest that this index would be useful in assessing prognosis in patients with ALA.