Objective: To evaluate the association between infection with the major oncogenic types of human papillomavirus and the risk of developing non-cervical anogenital cancers in a cohort followed up prospectively.
Design: Data from two large serum banks to which about 700,000 people had donated serum samples were followed up for a mean of 8 years. People who developed non-cervical anogenital cancers during follow up were identified by registry linkage with the nationwide cancer registries in Finland and Norway. Within this cohort a nested case-control study was conducted based on the serological diagnosis of infection with human papillomavirus types 16, 18, and 33.
Subjects: 81 cases and 240 controls matched for sex, age, and storage time of serum samples.
Main outcome measures: Odds ratios of developing non-cervical anogenital cancers in presence of IgG antibodies to specific micro-organisms.
Results: Subjects seropositive for human papillomavirus type 16 had an increased risk of developing non-cervical anogenital cancers (odds ratio 3.1 (95% confidence interval 1.4 to 6.9)). Subjects seropositive for type 33 also had an increased risk (odds ratio 2.8 (1.0 to 8.3)) but not significantly after adjustment for infection with type 16. Seropositivity for human papillomavirus type 16 was associated with an increased risk of developing vulvar and vaginal cancers (odds ratio 4.5 (1.1 to 22)) and a strongly increased risk of developing preinvasive vulvar and vaginal lesions (odds ratio infinity (3.8 to infinity)). Seropositivity for human papillomavirus type 18 increased the risk of developing preinvasive lesions (odds ratio 12 (1.2 to 590)). High, but non-significant odds ratios for types 16 and 33 were seen for penile cancers.
Conclusions: This study provides prospective seroepidemiological evidence that infection with human papillomavirus type 16 confers an increased risk of developing non-cervical genital cancers, particularly vulvar and vaginal cancers.