Many studies have suggested that African Americans have a higher prevalence of hypertension than whites. The authors conducted a prospective study of hypertension incidence from 1987-1988 to 1994-1995 in 140 African American and 237 white adults aged 30 to 54 years at baseline. The study participants were screened for participation in the Trials of Hypertension Prevention, phase 1, an 18-month lifestyle modification intervention trial aimed at lowering blood pressure, at the Baltimore Clinical Center. Baseline age, blood pressure, body mass index, and heart rate were similar in the two groups. Compared with whites, however, African Americans had a lower percentage of men, college graduates, and households with an income > or = $40,000 per year. African Americans also had lower mean urinary sodium to creatinine ratio and potassium to creatinine ratio, but a similar sodium to potassium ratio. The incidence of hypertension (blood pressure > or = 160/95 mm Hg and/or taking antihypertensive medication) over 7 years of follow-up was nearly identical: 25.7% in African Americans and 25.3% in whites. Baseline age, gender, blood pressure, and heart rate were all associated with the incidence of hypertension. Even after adjustment for these covariables, the risk of hypertension was not higher in African Americans compared with whites. These results indicate that middle-aged African Americans and whites have a similar risk of developing hypertension given the same age, initial blood pressure, and body mass index at baseline.