'Hey, everyone, I'm David Chalian, CNN's political director, and welcome to the CNN Political Briefing. Earlier this year, it looked like President Joe Biden was losing traction with young voters, a group that helped him win the White House in 2020. Organizers like 22-year-old University of Pittsburgh student Eian Anderson told my CNN colleague Danny Freeman they weren't seeing much enthusiasm from their peers for Joe Biden as a candidate.

'I was thinking, how could I convince some 18-year-old fresh out of high school, 'Hey, come spend a whole day talking to people you don't know over the phone for Joe Biden.' Hard sell.

But getting students to campaign for Vice President Kamala Harris — that's been an easier sell.

It's definitely changed.

'The polling numbers have changed, too. Since Harris took Biden's place at the top of the ticket, she's been able to gain some ground with Gen Z voters. But predictions are mixed on whether she has enough support from young people to match what Biden was able to do with those voters back in 2020. This week, we're breaking down the Gen Z vote. Whose voting? How are they voting? And what are their priorities in this election? John Della Volpe is the director of polling at the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics. Their new Harvard Youth Poll this week showed a big shift from their spring poll: Harris now with a 31-point lead among likely voters under the age of 30. John joined me to share more insights from the poll and sort through what young voters can tell us about this election — and who might win come November.

John, thanks so much for joining me. Really appreciate it.

It is great to be back. Thanks, David.

'So we chatted earlier this year when you released an initial installment looking at the youth vote in your Harvard IOP survey, 18 to 29-year-olds. It seems in your most recent installment released this week, you have a very different picture that's being painted here, which is obviously consistent with polling across all age groups in this entire race since it dramatically changed over the summer. But before we dig in to the specific numbers in the Trump-Harris race with this cohort, I do just want to ask you the fundamental question — and I don't know if you can glean from these data an answer to it — but will young people show up in big numbers in this election, from your sense of their engagement with this election?

It's a great question and something I think about every single day. Here's some perspective. You know, in 2020, we have the largest turnout in modern history among younger people. That is defined as young people between the ages of 18 and 29. And, for the first time since they had the right to vote, over 50% turnout of all eligible young Americans, over 50%. So when Millennials and Gen Xers and Baby Boomers and others were young voters, they voted at a lower rate than the current generation of Gen Zers and younger Millennials. We're seeing close to that level of enthusiasm at this stage, David. There is a number that we track. It's a simple number. You know, how likely are you vote? And the percentage of young people who say they are definitely going to vote is tracking close to — it hasn't matched 2020 levels, but it's pretty close to that. So I am fairly optimistic that we'll see a robust turnout among younger people.

Wow. And how does that number that you track — definitely going to vote — compare, and, again, I would imagine that number typically goes up as we get closer to the election. So, I take that here. But also, it was a different set of candidates, at least on the Democratic side, in the spring. How did that track in the spring in terms of definitely going to vote?

'See, this is the interesting point, I think. It typically does as elections get closer, younger people and all voters typically are more likely to say they're going to vote. And that happened with two groups between the spring and the fall. That happened with young Democrats, who are much more likely to vote. In fact, 74% of adults, of younger adults who identify as Democrat say they are likely to vote. That is up from the mid-sixties in the spring edition of the poll, which we conducted in March. Independent, unaffiliated, unenrolled voters, they're also up 4 or 5 points. But I think the news here, and if we don't meet that high turnout that we saw in 2020, in my view, it's not going to be because of Democrats, It's because of younger Republicans are less enthusiastic today than they were six months ago.

Really? So what is the — you said 74% likely to vote among Democrats. What does that number for young Republicans?

'So Democrats went from 64 to 74%, I think. It was up ten points. And younger Republicans went from 66% back in the springtime to 60% now. It actually went down. There's a 14-point gap — extremely significant in the number of young Democrats are young Republicans. And let's start with the fact there are many more young Democrats, right, who are in this cohort than young Republicans to start with.

Wow. And is there anything in your survey to suggest why Republicans may be moving in that direction?

Well, here is, I don't think there's a lot of nuance, is there? You know, there is — it's a completely different race. You know, young Republicans, you know, back in March, were looking at candidate who they felt was strong versus a candidate who they thought was weak. You know, Trump versus Biden. That's the way young Republicans who in our surveys and the dozens of focus groups I've done over the last couple of months viewed that race. And now everything's been flipped upside down. It is Trump now versus Harris, a completely different persona with a different set of attributes, not necessarily different set of values, but different set of attributes that I think make younger Republicans less confident in the degree to which they want to turn out and support Trump and someone who, honestly, a large portion were never that comfortable with to begin with.

Right. So your top line numbers here is that Harris has an astounding lead among 18 to 29 year olds over Trump, basically double the level of support Harris has over Trump, 64% to 32% in likely voters. I mean, that's even a bigger advantage than Joe Biden had with this group over Donald Trump in 2020, when overall participation, as you said, was a high watermark.

'Right. And I always like to remind listeners that Joe Biden is not president today without those two things, right? Without younger people participating in record numbers and without him earning 60% of that vote in a multi-candidate field. That 60% vote has happened three times a century. Obama hit it in 2008, surpassed it in 2012, as well, and Biden did it in 2020. That is a key component to how Democrats win elections. Can you move the youth vote to 60%? And Biden did that because Democrats generally, including Biden 2020, generally lose voters over the age of 45. You know, and certainly in the battleground states. So, as much as we think about this country being divided evenly, it is. It is accurate to say it is also divided based upon generations. So, what I always look for is the degree to which this Democratic candidate can get up to 60%, or the degree to which the Republican can keep that person kind of in the 50s. The numbers you talked about, though, David, is the two person head-to-head. Okay. Which has her as at 64%. When you look at Harris in a multi-candidate field, when we add in the libertarian candidate and the Green Party candidate and Cornel West, the likely vote is 61 to 30. You know, that sets pretty close to the ceiling. You know, Obama did it to 66%. There's still some opportunity, but you're pretty close to the ceiling.

Yeah. And actually, you know, we saw Biden perform better with the senior vote, on the other end of the spectrum, than Democrats typically perform. And in some polling now, it suggests that Harris is also maybe not at Biden levels but at the other end of this generational spectrum, a bit more competitive than Democrats are traditionally. Can you take us inside what is on the mind of America's young adults in terms of the issue set that they think is so important to them in this election?

It is truly complicated. And what I mean by that is when you talk to younger people about their lives, the role that politics plays in their lives, what their fears and hopes and dreams are, the conversation gets very real very quickly, David. We hear, of course, issues related to the economy, cost of living. But for too many, in my view, too many young Americans, these are existential questions about how do I keep a roof over my head? The number of young people who I speak with and engage with in my qualitative research by coincidence, by happenstance who had been or are on the verge of being homeless is astounding. So it's really about this lens of stability, economic stability, some form of economic independence. And I think that kind of extends the throughline to all the issues that they're thinking about: climate, on public safety, on school shootings and gun violence, on health care access, reproductive care. Younger people are looking for stability and some chance that they can live the kind of life they want to lead, own a home, have a family, provide for them. This is what this I think election is about for most of the young people that I spend time with.

Which makes perfect sense. I mean, everything you say, I think makes a lot of sense. I was surprised to see things like capping prescription drug prices rates so high. You know, I think of that as like something that is appealing to older Americans. Like thinking about — obviously, young Americans have medications to pay for, too, but it just doesn't usually feel like, to me, when I see Biden or Harris selling that or Democrats selling that, that it's like a play for the youth vote. But, I mean, it is an overwhelmingly popular policy proposal for this group.

'It is. It's funny, I remember in focus groups back in February when I was just walking through different examples of accomplishments from the Biden-Harris administration, you know, in terms of just some discovery work, the prescription drug costs, the Medicare, the $2,000 prescription drug costs was among the most strong, was one of the strongest arguments that was developed from those focus groups for reasons to turn out to vote. And I'll tell you why. A couple of things. One is that when you ask a young person why they vote, often I hear they're not just voting for themselves. They're voting for someone who's more vulnerable than themselves. Okay. So there's an aspect of that connection to other family members, one. But also, the reason that young people, that more young people don't turn out is they don't see the efficacy of government. They don't see the tangible difference. It's the attitudinal barriers that concern me most. And when you can talk about the price of insulin today versus a year ago, the cost of drugs today versus a year ago, that's a very discrete difference. It's something that people can connect the dots between voting and policy that impacts people. It's far easier to think about government in that way in terms of the tangible impact than in climate policy, which is difficult to measure certainly in real time.

That makes perfect sense. We're going to take a quick break. We'll have lots more with John Della Volpe in just a moment. Stay with us.

Welcome back. We're here with John Della Volpe of Harvard's Kennedy School Institute of Politics. We're talking about Gen Z voters and the role they could play in the outcome of this presidential race. CNN had a poll out this week also, and then we did a deep dive into younger voters, as well, and found something that you also find in your Harvard IOP poll, which is that the gender gap that exists broadly in this electorate is also very apparent in this younger cohort. What did you find when you looked at 18 to 29 year olds by gender?

This is an interesting story. So, there is a massive gender gap. Younger women are supporting Harris close to 70%. But here's a story, and I think this is the news for me. Younger men are also supporting Harris. Okay. Not at the same level, of course. Okay. But when I look at the March versus September editions of this survey, among likely voters, young men went from essentially a deadlock. I think Biden was up plus five. Okay. Now he's up 17 among younger men.

She is, Harris now is.

'I'm sorry, Harris is up by 17 points among younger men. But the gender gap, right, is larger because she's up by 47 points, close to 50 points among women. Okay. So, two things are happening, right? She is clearly kind of tapping in to the kind of the interest — based upon policy, I think, truly based upon policy and the opportunity for younger women to connect with someone who they feel understands them. You can clearly see the passion, enthusiasm. You know, she's plus 47. Biden was plus 22, you know, six months ago or so. But also, let's not forget, there's a gender gap, but men are also moving in the same direction, right? Just not as quickly. And I think that's striking. The other thing that was really interesting is — and I actually posted this on X or Twitter the other day — is that Biden's numbers based upon gender were in this ballpark. You know, there was a gender gap in 2020. And it's because largely, you know, younger women rejected Trump and saw president, then-Vice President Biden, as their advocate. You know, this isn't brand new. But it is striking to the degree to which this gender gap has been moving over the course of the last 6 to 12 months.

But as you note, it is part of the coalition pieces that Harris would have to put together if she's looking to repeat Biden's success in 2020. Can I just, because we hear so much from Trump and his allies about their ability to appeal to young male voters of color. Were you able to look at race in this poll and see — I hear what you're saying, that men overall plus 17 points for her, moving in that direction as well. But do you see a difference between young white men and young men of color?

It's hard to discern based upon, you know, likely voters, men, you know, and within some of these demographic groups, David. So, I can't give you kind of definitive clarity on that. I can tell you, though, men overall, you know, Democrats are in a weaker position today than they were four years ago. Okay. And that's clear. And I think a lot of that has to do honestly with the tens of millions of dollars that the Trump campaign and other aligned groups have invested in speaking to younger men, not just younger men of color, but younger men I think across the spectrum. I hear it, and I can see the increasing levels of support that he had this cycle relative to the previous cycles. I mean, from his perspective, he needed to win more votes this cycle than last cycle if he's going to be president. And newer voters offer him that opportunity. He's invested tens of millions of dollars. I think he's probably doing, you know, seven, eight, nine points better than he was in 2020 with men overall. But, again, these numbers are moving. And we'll see to the degree to which, you know, his support is softer among younger men. He'll do better. I'm not sure how much better he'll do relative to 2020.

'Interesting. So two other things I just want to chat about before I let you go. One, when Harris took over on July 21 atop the Democratic ticket, there was all of a sudden this swell of online social media-generated enthusiasm for her candidacy. She became sort of like a meme candidate out of the gate. And I'm wondering if you were able to drill down on that and see if that was impacting or being perceived in a positive way by this 18 to 29 year old set?

Yeah, it's a great question, and it's an important question for, I think, for a couple of reasons. One is that younger people, like older people, want to vote for someone that they're comfortable with, that they trust, that they can relate to. Okay. So the memes, I think, had kind of a strategic point beyond just kind of name I.D. and having fun. It showed Kamala Harris as someone that they could kind of relate to, whether it was on — beyond politics, culture, whether it was on cooking or dance or music. And it showed the enthusiasm that other members of this generation had towards her. So that's number one. But when you measure the effect, we saw that half of young Americans in this survey had been confronted or engaged with a meme, whether it was a Trump meme or a Harris meme, you know, over 50% saw memes. The difference is that by a 2 to 1 margin, younger people say that the Harris means increased their connection with her. It was a positive effect; 34% say the memes were a positive effect on her versus 13% who said negative. The opposite was true for the Trump memes. Only 15, 16 — one out of seven people who saw the memes said it was positive, while 26% said it was negative. So, listen, we used to live in a day where soundbites mattered only and now soundbites and then tweets. And now it's soundbites, tweets and means, right?

Yeah, no doubt. And you had this really interesting question that I wanted to make sure to chat about. If anybody watched the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, there was an obsession on the part of Democrats to hammer home and brand this Project 2025, this Heritage Foundation conservative think tank based policy prescription for a potential Trump administration. I should note here for our listeners, Trump and his allies in the campaign try on a daily basis to separate themselves from this, even though many, many people who worked for Donald Trump and may well work for him again, if he's in office, have been part of putting this project 2025 effort together, and the leader of it just this week again repeated he envisions a lot of these proposals being the Trump agenda should he get elected. Among young people, they seem aware of Project 2025 and not too pleased by it, right?

That is an understatement of epic proportions. So half of young people plus are familiar with it. I could tell you that the favorability was 14 favorable, 23 unfavorable, but that would just be Republicans.

Wow.

One out of seven Republicans have a favorable view of Project 2025, younger Republicans. Okay?

John, that may be because Trump is working actively to try and publicly separate from it and kind of rain on Project 2025's parade. So, perhaps some Republicans are taking his cues from him on that.

Fascinating, right. And the overall favorability, David, I think is 6% overall favorability.

I mean, I don't know many other things in American politics that have that low of an overall favorability. I mean, the branding exercise around Project 2025 seems to be very, very successful branding for the Democrats.

I would love to know, right? You should have whoever's idea it was to brand this back on your podcast if you haven't had them already because they deserve just a ton of credit.

Wow. Well, John, it's always interesting to hear your survey research work and hear your perspective on it. I know you do these focus groups, as well, and you're constantly thinking about how young people are thinking about their election choices. It'll be fascinating to see how this all plays out come November. Thanks a lot for being on.

Hey, appreciate you giving me the time and also the voice of all the young people who are just so important to the future of this country. And I hope they hear this, and I hope they feel empowered to vote.

'That's it for this week's edition of the CNN Political Briefing. We want to hear from you. Is there a question you'd like answered about this election cycle? Is there a guest you really want to hear from? Give us a call at (202) 618-9460. Or send us an email at [email protected]. And you might just be featured in a future episode of the podcast. So don't forget to tell us your name, where you're from, how we can reach you. And if you give us permission to use the recording on the podcast. CNN's Political Briefing is a production of CNN Audio. This episode was produced by Emily Williams. Our senior producer is Felicia Patinkin. Dan Dzula is our technical director, and Steve Lickteig is the Executive Producer of CNN Audio. Support from Alex Manasseri, Robert Mathers, Jon Dianora, Leni Steinhardt, Jamus Andrest, Nichole Pesaru and Lisa Namerow. Special thanks to Katie Hinman. We'll be back with a new episode next Friday. Thanks so much for listening.