A version of this story appeared in CNN’s What Matters newsletter. To get it in your inbox, sign up for free here.
The race to Election Day in November is in high gear.
Voters are casting ballots either by mail or in early voting. The October 1 vice presidential debate between Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, the Democrat, and Ohio Sen. JD Vance, the Republican, could be the last meeting between the Democratic campaign led by Vice President Kamala Harris and the Republican campaign led by former President Donald Trump.
While the scene is set for what pollsters expect could be an extremely close election, there will be unexpected developments between now and Election Day on November 5.
Nobody expected President Joe Biden’s campaign to implode after the shock of his performance at CNN’s debate in late June. Democrats went from literally freaking out about his candidacy to a new excitement about Harris as his replacement.
Nobody expected an assassination attempt against Trump, an event that unified Republicans around him and has many in his party showing a sort of divine reverence for his near-death experience.
So we don’t know specifically what will happen between now and Election Day, or what could come after, when the country’s unique Electoral College process gets going. But we do have some idea of what to expect:
Voting is well underway
While Election Day isn’t until November 5, most states allow some kind of early voting, either by mail or in person, and that process kicks into overdrive in October.
Most Americans, nearly 70%, voted early or by mail in 2020, according to census figures, although that figure was affected by the Covid-19 pandemic.
The campaigns will be focused on getting out the vote in the few key battleground states they think are up for grabs. In 2020, Biden won five states that Trump won in 2016. Those states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – could again be the focus in 2024 when Harris, who turns 60 in October, takes on Trump.
It’s important to be sure you’re registered to vote as soon as possible, which can usually be done online. Twenty-three states and Washington, DC, allow Election Day voter registration.
Election Day and beyond
US law requires federal elections to take place on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November. This year, that’s November 5.
People who don’t vote early will hit their local voting location. Polls will close at different times around the country. Due to the rise of voting by mail, if key states are close, like they were in 2020, we probably won’t know the winner on Election Day.
Regardless, expect lawsuits in certain states and the potential for recounts in others. Election Day is far from the end of the election.
Separately, Trump’s sentencing on 34 counts of falsifying business records is now scheduled for November 26.
Also this month: Biden turns 82.
December: Electoral votes are cast
After questions about the election are settled, states confirm, or ascertain, their statewide results. Electors gather in their respective state capitols to cast electoral votes for their statewide winner.
Nebraska and Maine also allocate some electoral votes by congressional district, and these could be pivotal in a close race.
January: Someone will solemnly swear
The new Congress takes the oath of office on January 3. It’s this new Congress that, in the unlikely event of an Electoral College tie, would settle the election. Each state would get one vote for president in the House of Representatives.
In any event, lawmakers gather on January 6, as everyone should remember from 2020, to count electoral votes. Harris will preside. She could either be the fifth vice president in history to oversee her own Electoral College victory, or the fourth in history to oversee her own Electoral College defeat.
On January 20, 2025, the next president takes the oath of office.
This story has been updated with additional developments.