2025 Oscars: Best Supporting Actor Predictions
Marcus Jones
Nominations voting is from January 8-12, 2025, with official Oscar nominations announced January 17, 2025. Final voting is February 11-18, 2025. And finally, the 97th Oscars telecast will be broadcast on Sunday, March 2 and air live on ABC at 7:00 p.m. ET/ 4:00 p.m. PT. We update our picks through awards season, so keep checking IndieWire for all our 2025 Oscar predictions.
The State of the Race
Predicting the Best Supporting Actor nominees can be especially hard because when there is a celebrated ensemble film, that ensemble is often comprised primarily of men. So coming out of a year where the Best Picture race is more of an even playing field there is not one film in particular that anyone can firmly say will get a bunch of their actors nominated into this category. It could still go any number of ways.
All that said, it is probably more fun to operate off the idea that voters will spread the wealth. “Anora” having won the Palme d’Or at Cannes, and been a runner-up for the People’s Choice Award at TIFF, has made the Sean Baker film a frontrunner across several races. For anyone who has seen the trailer, it certainly looks like Mark Eydelshteyn as the beau of the titular character would the most likely Best Supporting Actor, but the people who have actually seen the film are a bit more enamored with co-star Yura Borisov, who some voters may know from “Compartment No. 6,” a Finnish drama that made the Best International Feature shortlist in 2021. One of the highlights of “Anora” that often gets talked about is the film’s ending, which more so involves Borisov, so he seems to be the prime choice to represent the film in this category.
Another big fall festival film was “Conclave,” from “All Quiet on the Western Front” director Edward Berger. The papal election drama is filled to the brim with good supporting performances, but the two that standout most as great foils for likely Best Actor nominee Ralph Fiennes are Stanley Tucci, who has been nominated once before, and newcomer Carlos Diehz. Others like John Lithgow, Sergio Castellitto, and Lucian Msamati have their moments, but fall toward the background by the climax.
For other films that are not as high up on the list of predicted Best Picture nominees, there becomes an issue of vote splitting. “The Piano Lesson” stars Samuel L. Jackson, Ray Fisher, and Corey Hawkins are all top tier actors to the point where people who see the film could each have a different favorite performance of the trio. It should be noted though that Jackson specifically has not been nominated for an Oscar since “Pulp Fiction,” so there is a narrative already that the August Wilson adaptation could lead him to an overdue return to the Academy Awards.
Similarly, “Challengers” stars Josh O’Connor and Mike Faist seem like a package deal: either they get nominated for awards together, or they don’t get nominated at all. Even with public favor leaning O’Connor’s way, it does not yet seem like voters have shown a clear preference for which actor gave the most awards worthy performance. For films like “Sing Sing” and “The Brutalist,” which also feature multiple significant supporting performances both newcomer Clarence Maclin and never-nominated Guy Pearce are not only the top choices to represent their respective films, but to win the award (unless Kieran Culkin finds a second wind for Sundance favorite “A Real Pain”).
Contenders are listed in alphabetical order, below. No actor will be deemed a frontrunner until I have seen the film.
Frontrunners:
Yura Borisov (“Anora”)
Kieran Culkin (“A Real Pain”)
Clarence Maclin (“Sing Sing”)
Guy Pearce (“The Brutalist”)
Stanley Tucci (“Conclave”)
Contenders:
Joe Alwyn (“The Brutalist”)
Carlos Diehz (“Conclave”)
Mark Eydelshteyn (“Anora”)
Mike Faist (“Challengers”)
Ray Fisher (“The Piano Lesson”)
Samuel L. Jackson (“The Piano Lesson”)
John Magaro (“September 5”)
Josh O’Connor (“Challengers”)
Jeremy Strong (“The Apprentice”)
Denzel Washington (“Gladiator II”)
Long Shots:
Austin Butler (“Dune Part II”)
Harris Dickinson (“Babygirl”)
Corey Hawkins (“The Piano Lesson”)
Brian Tyree Henry (“The Fire Inside”)
John Earl Jelks (“Exhibiting Forgiveness”)
Karren Karagulian (“Anora”)
Pedro Pascal (“Gladiator II”)
Adam Pearson (“A Different Man”)
Jesse Plemons (“Civil War”)
Drew Starkey (“Queer”)
