000
AXNT20 KNHC 030425
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Oct 3 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0420 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Major Hurricane Kirk is centered near 19.5N  44.5W at 03/0300Z, 
or 990 nm ENE of the Lesser Antilles, moving NW at 9 kt. 
Estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb. Maximum sustained 
wind speed is 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt. Peak seas are 
estimated at 34 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong 
convection is noted from 17N-21N between 42W-46W and scattered 
moderate to isolated strong 12.5N-17N between 39W-48W. The NW 
motion is expected to continue over the next day or so with a 
gradual turn to the north-northwest and north by this weekend. 
Strengthening is forecast over the next couple of days. Because 
of the large size of Kirk, seas 8 ft or greater are expected to 
occur within 420 NM in its northern semicircle and 240 NM in its 
southern semicircle for the next couple of days.

Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Leslie is centered near 10.4N 
30.1W at 03/0300, or 430 nm SW of the Southernmost Cabo Verde 
Islands, moving W at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 
1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 
kt. Peak seas are around 10 ft. Scattered moderate to strong 
convection is occurring from 07.5N-13.5N between 27W-34W. A 
continued slow westward to west-northwestward motion is expected 
during the next few days. Steady strengthening is forecast, and 
Leslie is expected to become a hurricane in a couple of days.

A Gale Warning is in effect for a portion of the SW Gulf, 
S of 21N W of 95W, as a tight pressure gradient between low 
pressure in the Bay of Campeche and high pressure to its NW is 
forcing gale winds there. Peak winds are 35 kt with peak seas of 
12 ft in the SW Gulf near 19N95.5W. The gale-force winds are 
expected to diminish to near gale tonight through Thu morning. 
These winds are expected to diminish to fresh to strong Thu, 
with little change through Sat. 

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest 
Hurricane Kirk and Tropical Depression Thirteen NHC 
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for 
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

There are no tropical waves observed across the Atlantic Basin at
this time. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16W and extends 
to 11N22W. After a break induced by Hurricane Kirk and Tropical 
Storm Leslie, the monsoon trough resumes at 15N50W and extends 
to 11N59W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
occurring from 06N-10N between 18W-22W. Numerous showers and 
thunderstorms are exiting the coast of Africa south of 13N. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section on the Gale Warning
in the SW Gulf.

A broad 1006 mb low is centered in the SW Gulf near 19N94W 
with a trough extending northeastward to 28N86W. Scattered 
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted south of 23N 
and west of 88W, and from 27N to 29N between 85W and 91W.
Aside from strong to gale force winds noted in the Gale Warning 
for the SW Gulf, moderate to fresh NE to N winds prevail 
elsewhere W of the trough, with seas 3-7 ft. Elsewhere, mainly 
gentle and variable winds prevail with seas 1-3 ft.

For the forecast, gale force winds over a portion of the SW Gulf 
that includes within 60 nm offshore Veracruz will diminish to 
just below gale force early tonight. These winds are expected to 
diminish to fresh to strong Thu, with little change through Sat. 
Seas to around 12 ft with these winds will slowly subside 
through the end of the week. Otherwise, disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms over portions of the northwestern Caribbean Sea 
and the Gulf of Mexico are associated with a trough of low 
pressure. Environmental conditions could support some gradual 
development of this system over the Gulf of Mexico this weekend 
while the system drifts eastward. Regardless of development, 
locally heavy rains could occur over portions of Mexico during 
the next few days and over portions of the Florida Peninsula by 
the weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level trough and a surface trough over the NW Caribbean 
are producing scattered moderate convection from 16.5N-20N 
between 79-86W. Moderate SE winds generally prevail across the 
NW Caribbean W of 80W, where seas are 2-4 ft. Across the rest of 
the basin, winds are light to gentle due to a weak north-south 
pressure gradient. Seas are 1-3 ft.

For the forecast, disorganized showers and thunderstorms over 
portions of the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of 
Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure. 
Environmental conditions could support some gradual development 
of this system over the Gulf of Mexico this weekend while the 
system drifts eastward. Regardless of development, locally heavy 
rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next few 
days and over portions of the Florida Peninsula by the weekend. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds are expected. Looking ahead, 
seas generated by hurricane Kirk may reach the offshore waters E 
of the Leeward Islands Fri night into Sat. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section on Hurricane Kirk 
and Tropical Storm Leslie. 

Aside from Kirk and Leslie, the most notable feature over the
Atlantic waters is a surface trough from 31N44W to 21N53W 
causing widely scattered moderate convection north of 26N 
between 42.5W-52W. Over the western waters, winds are moderate 
or weaker with seas 5-8 ft in NE swell due to a flat pressure 
gradient. In the eastern Atlantic, a 1024 mb Azores High is 
centered near 34N25.5W. Equatorward of the high, the trades are 
moderate to fresh with seas 5-8 ft. North of 27N and east of 20W 
winds are fresh to locally strong with seas 7 to 9 ft.  

For the forecast W of 55W, weak high pressure will remain just N 
of the area through the next few days. Low pressure moving 
eastward N of the area is bringing fresh to strong NW to N winds 
and rough seas, mainly across the waters N of 27N and E of 70W 
tonight. Strengthening Hurricane Kirk well ESE of the offshore 
zones will move NW during the next few days, passing to the E of 
the NE forecast waters Fri night through Sat night. Rough to 
very rough seas are expected during the upcoming weekend over 
most of the waters ENE of the Bahamas. These conditions are 
forecast to subside early next week.

$$
KRV