My Take 5 (Edition 18): The week that was in international affairs

Welcome to another edition of My Take 5, your weekly wrap of international news. Ukraine is having to defend against a new Russian onslaught, fighting has intensified in Gaza, and protests in Georgia continue. Let’s dive into it:

Russia targets Kharkiv again: In a sudden offensive which could signal the beginning of its summer onslaught, Russian forces opened a new front in Ukraine’s northeast in the direction of Ukraine’s second city Kharkiv. Russian forces advanced a few miles from the active frontline and reportedly captured nine villages and settlements in the region, forcing Ukrainian civilians to flee towards Kharkiv. This is the most significant Russian ground assault in the region since Russian forces were pushed back from Kharkiv by the Ukrainian army in the autumn of 2022. Although Ukraine says that it doesn’t see a Russian assault directly on Kharkiv any time soon, Moscow has reportedly amassed 30,000 troops for this new offensive.

This highlights two things – first, that Ukrainian lines weren’t sufficiently defended along this region, and second, Russia is taking advantage of the delay in shipment of Western arms to Ukraine. US secretary of state Antony Blinken, on a surprise visit to Kyiv, assured that a part of the military assistance promised under the recently passed $61 billion aid package was arriving this week. Better late than never, but Ukrainian forces today still find themselves in a very difficult position. The momentum in the war has shifted in favour of the Russians. Therefore, Ukraine and its backers have to dig deep, get the weapons supplies to the Ukrainian military on the frontline, defend, and wait for an opportunity to seize back the momentum. Like I said before, it will get tough before it gets better.

Intense fighting breaks out in Gaza:  Israel’s offensive in Rafah that began last week has intensified with fierce fighting being reported from the southern Gaza outpost. In fact, fighting is also being reported from north and central Gaza. This is surprising because north Gaza had been cleared by the Israeli military months ago, declaring that Hamas infrastructure there had been completely dismantled. Israeli soldiers returning to the area now shows that Hamas infrastructure remains intact. This again begs the question: Can Israel completely eliminate Hamas through its current tactics? The death toll in Gaza from the seven months of fighting has crossed 35,000 while 273 Israeli soldiers have perished. And the destruction that is being wrought on Gaza will only help create the next generation of Hamas.

The only realistic way to defeat Hamas is to empower the internationally-recognised Palestinian Authority (PA) in the West Bank. But the PA too has been neutered by Israel and illegal occupation and seizure of West Bank Palestinian lands continue. The result is the impossible situation we see in Gaza today. No one can be a winner here.

US-Taiwan joint naval drills: Reports emerged this week that US and Taiwan quietly held joint naval drills in the Western Pacific in April. This is hugely significant in the context of China’s constant aggression against Taiwan. Relations between Beijing and Taipei have significantly deteriorated in recent years with Chinese President Xi Jinping ramping up rhetoric on reunification. But democratic Taiwan fiercely guards its system and way of life despite Chinese claims of sovereignty over the island nation. Recall too that the Chinese Communist Party has never set foot on Taiwan. Beijing’s real bugbear is the governing Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in Taiwan that it sees as working for Taiwan’s formal independence. But Taiwan is already de facto independent. And the election of the DPP – which won its third straight presidential election in January – reflects the will of the Taiwanese people.

Plus, there’s no denying that the US is extremely crucial for Taiwan’s security. Although Washington has maintained strategic ambiguity about whether it will directly defend Taipei in case of a Chinese attack, President Biden has on occasions said that the US will indeed defend Taiwan. And with Taiwan’s strategic planners long expecting and gaming an amphibious assault by China, naval cooperation with the Americans is vital for the island nation. One hopes that Taiwan’s security is strengthened through more such military exchanges.     

US warns India over Chabahar: US has warned India of the potential risk of sanctions after it inked a long-term deal with Iran to operate a terminal at its Chabahar Port. While India is downplaying the US statement, the latter does hold strategic implications. India’s involvement in Chabahar was conceptualised as an alternative trade route to Afghanistan bypassing Pakistan. The US had also provided a narrow sanctions exemption to India’s development of the Iranian port.

However, that was at a different time when a relatively moderate government was in charge in Tehran and the erstwhile Republic of Afghanistan government was running things in Kabul. All that has changed today – the Taliban is back in power in Kabul and the hardline government in Tehran is creating all sorts of problems for the US by supporting Russia in its war against Ukraine and bolstering Hamas in the conflict in Gaza. Therefore, it is highly unlikely that the US will buy India’s argument that Chabahar holds out benefits for the entire Central Asian region. India fancies itself as a swing state between the Western bloc and the emerging authoritarian bloc led by China and Russia. But swing states are also susceptible to pressure from both sides.

Georgia adopts controversial bill:  Despite huge protests, Georgia has passed a controversial bill that requires media and civil society groups to register as serving the interests of foreign powers if they receive more than 20% in foreign funding. This was the third and final reading of the bill, which the West says mirrors legislation in Russia. This is precisely why the bill is being interpreted as the Georgian government’s signal that it is moving closer to Russia. In fact, the US has even warned Georgia that if it continues in this direction, it would be jeopardising bilateral relations and the billions of dollars in aid that were earmarked for Tbilisi. Coming against the backdrop of the Ukraine war, this is a tricky issue. While Georgia denies it is moving closer to Russia, there is clear friction between its current government and the West. Plus, Georgia has taken in hundreds of thousands of Russians fleeing Russia’s war against Ukraine. Add to this Georgia’s own difficult history with Russia. The best thing to do would be for Georgia to clear the air with the US, uphold democratic values, and continue on its path of closer integration with Europe. Any break in Georgia-West ties will only gladden Putin.