National vs state elections: Exit polls suggest voters think differently

NEW DELHI: If the exit poll predictions for the Delhi assembly elections come true on February 11, the day of results, it will yet again prove that voters think differently in the Lok Sabha elections and in the assembly elections.
The BJP, which is predicted to win 17 seats according to a poll of 10 exit polls will be disappointed with the projections as it was the clear winner in the Lok Sabha elections held last year.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP got 56.9 per cent of the votes and won all the 7 Lok Sabha seats in the national capital. The Congress got 22.6 per cent and the AAP with 18.2 per cent was at the third position.
If the BJP vote share was translated into seats, the party would have got 65 seats while the AAP only 5 seats.
However, the exit polls predict a different story.
Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party is likely to register another huge victory in the national capital despite a very strong campaign by the BJP led by Union home minister Amit Shah, according to the exit poll projections.
According to a poll of 10 exit polls, AAP is projected to win 52 seats in the 2020 Delhi assembly elections.
The India Today-Axis poll forecast 59-68 seats for the AAP and 2-11 for the BJP, while the ABP-CVoter put the Delhi's ruling party's tally at anywhere between 49 and 63 and that of its main rival between five to 19.
The Times Now-Ipsos exit poll predicted that Kejriwal will retain power with the AAP winning 47 seats against 23 for the BJP.
The Republic-Jan ki Baat survey gave the AAP 48-61 seats and the BJP 9-21 seats.
The TV9 Bharatvarsh-Cicero predicted 52-64 seats for the AAP and 6-16 for the BJP.
An exit poll put out by Neta-NewsX said the AAP may win 53-57 seats and the BJP 11-17.
The ABP's survey said the AAP's vote share may be a whopping 50.4 per cent against the BJP's 36 per cent. The corresponding share for the two parties was 56 per cent and 35 per cent, according to the India Today-Axis poll.
In 2015, the AAP and the BJP had won 67 and three seats respectively. Their corresponding vote share was 54.3 and 32.3 per cent.