Man with Modified mandate

In their post-results comments, opposition leaders — from Rahul Gandhi to Mamata Banerjee — described BJP’s failure to score a majority of its own as PM Narendra Modi’s defeat. This was to be expected, considering that the entire NDA’s campaign (TDP being a partial exception), was framed around him. His energetic campaign only served to enhance his personal liability. But while results clearly suggest that the law of politics has caught up with him, he has still pulled off a feat which most incumbents in democracy can only dream of. Modi is going to be only the second PM after Jawaharlal Nehru to have secured a third term. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r In fact, his achievement may be considered even bigger because it comes in a political milieu that is polarised, fragmented and far more competitive than the one Nehru had to reckon with. Moreover, Nehru also had the advantage of having been blessed by none other than Mahatma Gandhi, and being leader of a party that basked in the glow of being the vanguard of the freedom movement.In contrast, Modi arrived as dissent; a challenger to the mainstream. Coming back to 2024, while the tally of 243 looks like a nosedive both from the standards of the 400- paar campaign as well as the widely held perception of the polls being a no-contest, this is the best to have been posted by any non-BJP party since 1984 when Congress rode the massive sympathy wave generated by Indira Gandhi’s assassination. medium nocaption110737601However, the setback has brought to fore issues like price rise and unemployment which emerged as warning signs during the campaign but were seen as minor irritants because of the assumption, wrong and smug as it turned out to be, that an absolute majority was already in the bag.Although Modi did a good job of containing inflation, the assumption that voters would go only by the sincerity of intent, while also taking into account the international pattern of runaway inflation, turned out to be wrong. Modi pushed for expansion of public infrastructure and generation of employment in the informal sector. The calculation that this, along with the post-Covid push for filling up vacancies in central govt jobs, would help assuage the concern about jobs did not come to pass. The retention of sitting BJP MPs, despite internal surveys and cadre feedback flagging their unpopularity, was another big and avoidable mistake. The 400+ target, which was supposed to convey strength and self-assuredness, also boomeranged, with the opposition saying this was part of a design to change the Constitution and scrap quotas. The counter-manoeuvre by Modi in the form of an aggressive pitch against Muslim quota did not work as Hindus voted along caste lines. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r If anything, it gave an opening to his opponents to renew the charge that he was divisive and desperate. This may have caused consternation to the moderates among his supporters. The resultant reduction in seats has turned the third term into a challenge. Apart from a stronger opposition which is going to be more aggressive, Modi also has to contend with allies like N Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar, who are not in sync with the themes on BJP’s agenda and may act as restraint.At the same time, RSS will also be keeping a wary eye on how he deals with pressure from allies. But Modi is not alien to struggles. His career is essentially that of negotiating challenges and taking them on at the opportune moment. And, despite the apparent diminution, he will be approaching one with strengths that few can boast of. medium110708410 BJP’s numbers, although reduced, are also a testimony to the goodwill and credibility he enjoys in an age when loyalties are shortlived and fleeting, and goodwill evaporates in the heat of ever-escalating expectations. This is the main reason why BJP could survive the ‘caste’ and ‘consolidation’ card played so adroitly by the opposition.His credentials as a ‘staunch nationalist’ are considered beyond reproach, and the massive upgrade of public infrastructure that happened under his leadership is a lived and real experience that may be appreciated again now that resentments have been vented. The robust exchequer is going to be a strength. medium110710806Addressing the concerns of Dalits and OBCs cannot be beyond a leader and a party which has been more sensitive to caste sentiments than the older BJP. The third term is going to be his legacy term, and Modi will leave no stone unturned to ensure it is remembered for accomplishments rather than as a weak arrangement. Going by his track record, he may not like to let the challenges become an alibi for non-performance, and a stint which dwarfs the memory of his achievements in the first two terms. Conclusions about decline may yet turn out to be premature.