BJP asked Modi vs who? INDIA said Modi vs Constitution

The C-word was a ‘wild card’ entry, but at several stages of the election campaign, the Samvidhan overshadowed the regular cast of issues. Opposition was first on the draw, cleverly painting BJP’s 400-paar target as a dark plot to scrap reservations by changing the Constitution.The charge blended well with Rahul Gandhi’s declared intent of posing a phalanx of Muslims/OBCs/Dalits against a handful of the privileged (read upper castes/middle classes).PM Narendra Modi launched his counter-offensive by saying it was Congress and its allies who were guilty of subverting the Constitution by extending reservations to Muslims even though faith-based quotas were not allowed.He also dared Rahul, who would dramatically brandish a copy of the Constitution at his election rallies, to promise in writing that they would never attempt a Muslim quota again.As the animated duel progressed, the Constitution became a talking point. This was the first time — with the possible exception of the 1977 election which, in the North, turned into a referendum on Indira Gandhi’s suspension of democracy — that the Constitution had found itself in the poll arena. mediumhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6GgwmOa5YQAAfter the results were declared, Rahul brought up the C-word again. “The fight was to save the Constitution. We were sure that the citizens of India would make attempts to guard it and I would like to thank everyone,” he said.Despite the sparring, there is no evidence to suggest that BJP indeed wanted to amend the Constitution. It has carved out a significant following among Dalits and OBCs, and it would be political harakiri to offend them. mediumhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sj96evTnYigIt is true that some in the larger Sangh Parivar consider the 42nd amendment, which inserted ‘secularism’ and ‘socialism’ in the Preamble during the Emergency, illegal, but there are no indications that the unease is shared by the BJP leadership.They would also not like to reinforce adverse perceptions at home and abroad by messing with something that has not been a deterrent in the implementation of its agenda — especially since the gap between ‘letter’ and ‘spirit’ can be creatively bridged.How BJP's switch from development to religion hit itA significant portion of the INDIA bloc’s success rests on Muslims, who voted decisively against BJP and formed a coalition with backward castes and Dalits. This restricted BJP from getting a clear majority while giving Samajwadi Party in UP and TMC in West Bengal a clear advantage.Academics say that this is due to the combination of BJP’s failed outreach towards the Pasmandas (the most socially and economically backward among Muslims) and a pushback to the anti-Muslim rhetoric during the election campaign. However, the most significant factor that enabled the backward-Muslim combine was BJP’s announcement that Muslim reservation within the OBC quota would be removed. mediumhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fYqyEzM6184While the BJP campaign kickstarted with ‘Viksit Bharat’, or an agenda for development, the discourse deteriorated soon after the first phase. Referring to PM Modi’s Pasmanda outreach as “doublespeak”, Prof Khalid Anis Ansari, a sociologist with Azim Premiji University, said, “In one speech, he would speak about Pasmandas and then call Muslims infiltrators in another speech.”Modi accused TMC of appeasing the “Muslim vote bank” and targeted Congress, saying they would seize Hindu property to redistribute it to Muslims, accusing them of “politics of appeasement.” BJP also accused ex-PM Manmohan Singh of saying that Muslims had the first right to the country’s resources.A strategic vote keeping wins in mindBacked into a corner, Muslims chose to vote strategically with winnability in mind. In 2019, BJP got 6% of the Muslim vote, which has decreased significantly, said CSDS associate professor Hilal Ahmed. “The election saw a smoother transfer of votes between Muslims to backward caste candidates with the bulk of the Muslim candidates of SP and Congress winning in UP,” says Asim Ali, a political researcher at the Centre for Policy Research. medium110372987In direct contests, SP’s Mohibbullah won against BJP’s Ghanshyam Singh Lodhi in Rampur, while Iqra Choudhary from Kairana and Afzal Ansari from Ghazipur also registered wins.In West Bengal, TMC’s Yusuf Pathan defeated Congress veteran and five-time MP Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury. The Muslim vote did not split towards the Left and Congress in West Bengal and to BSP in UP, as was expected by some.This is significant, considering that the number of Muslim candidates in the 2024 Lok Sabha poll has declined. BJP fielded the sole Muslim candidate, Abdus Salam, from Kerala’s Malappuram, while its ally JD(U) in Bihar gave two tickets to two candidates. Among opposition parties, too, the representation of the community has fallen.The question of citizenship and the fear that the Muslim quota already existing at a state level in Kerala, Karnataka, and Telangana could be removed if BJP were to win 400 seats appear to have strengthened the Muslim vote. TMC used HC decision to scrap OBC certificates to considerable advantage.