What Sandeshkhali tells us about West Bengal politics

When the West Bengal police finally arrested Sheikh Shahjahan, accused of assaulting and raping several women in Sandeshkhali, his body language telegraphed several messages.Shahjahan sauntered towards the court, unfettered, with local police following him deferentially. For all practical purposes he could have been a political leader, not an accused criminal.The court hearing lasted just two minutes. Shahjahan was escorted back to the police lock-up while the Enforcement Directorate (ED) sought his custody from the local police who were clearly intimidated by an accused criminal facing 42 serious charges. The court told his defence lawyer while rejecting bail: “This will keep him busy for 10 years.”Watch: Trinamool leader Shahjahan arrested medium nocaption108100800In a decisive intervention, the Calcutta high court on March 5 set aside the state’s Special Investigation Team (SIT) and ordered the police to hand over Shahjahan to the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI), which will now probe the case.What does the Shahjahan episode say about the Trinamool Congress (TMC) which, in an effort at damage control, suspended him from the party for six years? What does it say about the West Bengal police? And what will be the electoral consequences in 2024 of the horror of Sandeshkhali, where women have for years been raped and their families’ land systematically stolen?Sandeshkhali was Shahjahan’s fiefdom. The TMC gave him a free hand despite knowing his criminal background. It provided him with political cover.If the Calcutta high court had not intervened after Shahjahan had evaded arrest for 55 days, he would still be hiding in a safe house.Key vote bankWest Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee recognises that the revolt by Sandeshkhali’s women, allegedly raped by Shahjahan’s men for years, could harm the TMC’s prospects in the 2024 general election.Banerjee has assiduously wooed female voters with schemes like Lakshmi Bhandar which entitles women to receive a monthly amount of ₹1,000 and schedule caste/tribal women to receive ₹1,200. For Banerjee, female voters now form a constituency almost as electorally vital to her as Muslims.She nurtures both vote banks.Watch: 'Sandeshkhali will be Mamata's downfall' medium nocaption107861606But as the full horror of Sandeshkhali emerges following Shahjahan’s arrest, the crucial constituency of women could begin to slip away from the TMC.The educated Bengali middle class has so far turned a blind eye to the political violence that has scarred the state since the Naxal movement in the 1960s followed by the blood-soaked 34-year rule of the Left and now of the TMC.Violence has become a way of life in Bengal politics. The local police are powerless — bribed or beaten into submission by thuggish politicians. The judiciary, with few honourable exceptions, treads warily in this minefield.Turning pointWest Bengal has been marked by four turning points in the past 55 years. First, Naxalite violence that drove businesses out of the state in the late 1960s. Aditya Birla, once Bengal’s most outstanding business leader, moved his headquarters and family home from a violence-torn Calcutta to cosmopolitan Bombay in 1970.The breakdown of law and order under former Congress chief minister Siddhartha Shankar Ray, an Indira Gandhi favourite, was the second turning point. It brought the despotic Left Front to power in 1977. Industries continued to flee West Bengal.The third turning point was the rise of Mamata Banerjee’s TMC. It copied the Left’s violent playbook with an additional twist: creating a Muslim vote bank.The Singur and Nandigram agitations, along with a Muslim-first agenda, helped Banerjee end 34 years of Left rule in West Bengal. medium108260200But the violence didn’t end. The Left’s cadres jumped ship and joined the TMC. If anything, the amalgam of former Left cadres and Islamic fundamentalists raised political violence to a new high with bomb-making rampant across the state ahead of local and national elections.From panchayat and assembly polls to Lok Sabha elections, booth capturing and targeted murders enabled the TMC to win every election since 2011.Does Sandeshkhali represent the fourth turning point? That may be premature but there are indications that Banerjee’s rule could now face its gravest challenge.She has survived corruption allegations in chit fund and teacher recruitment scams. Protests against land-grab and sexual assault on women in Sandeshkhali could, however, be a tipping point.Litmus testThe 2024 Lok Sabha election will be a litmus test for the TMC’s continuing 13-year domination of West Bengal politics.Banerjee has refused a seat-sharing arrangement with the Congress and the Left. That will convert the 2024 Lok Sabha election in West Bengal into a multi-cornered fight, playing to the strength of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).In the 2019 Lok Sabha election, the TMC received 43.3% vote share and won 22 out of West Bengal’s 42 seats. The BJP won 40.7% vote share and 18 seats.The Left garnered 6.33% vote share and zero seats. The Congress brought up the rear with 5.67% vote share but won two seats. medium108260240If the BJP were to face a combined TMC-Left-Congress alliance in 2024, it could conceivably lose several of the 18 Lok Sabha seats it won in 2019. But in a multi-cornered fight, the BJP will fancy its chances of even increasing its 2019 tally.That would be a body blow to Banerjee. A poor parliamentary show could be a bad omen for the 2026 assembly election. She will be 71 years old then and fighting anti-incumbency after three successive terms as chief minister.Under Banerjee, West Bengal has slipped down the ranks of states on key criteria: state gross domestic product, per capita income, infrastructure, industrial growth and, most crucially, law and order.The spectre of women protesting sexual assault and land theft by Shahjahan could not have come at a worse time for Banerjee, weeks ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.It could trigger the fourth turning point in West Bengal’s troubled political history.Read more from the author here.