Why Maharashtra misstep may cost BJP dear in 2024

When Devendra Fadnavis, former chief minister of Maharashtra, was told that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) high command had decided to appoint rebel Shiv Sena leader Eknath Shinde as chief minister of the new BJP-led state government, he was taken aback but quietly followed the party line.Fadnavis, however, showed his disappointment by declining to join the new government. He said he would work for it from the outside.It took phone calls from BJP President JP Nadda, Union home minister Amit Shah and finally Prime Minister Narendra Modi to persuade Fadnavis to accept the post of deputy chief minister.Watch: BJP says Fadnavis must be deputy CM medium nocaptionhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0OSyhNZE2swA consummate team player, Fadnavis later said publicly that it was he who had proposed Eknath Shinde as chief minister following the collapse of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government.But the hurt was palpable. As The Times of India reported on July 5, 2022: “Fadnavis admitted that he was not mentally prepared to assume the post of deputy CM, but changed his decision after a discussion was held with PM Narendra Modi and intervention by BJP president JP Nadda and Union home minister Amit Shah. It will not be wrong if it is said that I took this proposal (to the BJP leadership) that Shinde is made the chief minister and they (the leadership) accepted it.”With hindsight, did the BJP leadership err in appointing Shinde chief minister and persuading Fadnavis, a former CM, to be his deputy?Shinde had 40 rebel MLAs; BJP had 105 MLAs. Shinde would have been perfectly happy to serve as deputy CM if Fadnavis was, as widely expected, appointed CM after the fall of the MVA government. medium105585884Once he was ensconced as CM, however, Shinde began to dominate cabinet meetings. The soft-spoken Fadnavis played his part well. As deputy CM, he was a solicitous mentor to Shinde. The rebel Sena leader had never held a constitutional post, but grew into his job.Matters became awkward with the arrival of Ajit Pawar. The Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) leader had long been unhappy in a party where Sharad Pawar’s daughter Supriya Sule was the designated heir.It is complicatedAjit Pawar’s rebellion and entry into the BJP-Shinde Sena government as deputy CM complicated matters.With two deputy CMs, often at odds with each other, and an increasingly assertive CM, the BJP’s plan to make Maharashtra an impregnable fortress ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha election could hit a hurdle. Theoretically, the BJP-Shinde Sena-Ajit Pawar NCP alliance can sweep Maharashtra’s 48 Lok Sabha seats. That was the BJP high command’s calculation when it accepted the entry of first Shinde, and then Ajit Pawar.Where could the calculation go wrong? Ajit Pawar’s vaulting ambition to be CM has led to a cold war with Shinde. Playing peacemaker, Fadnavis is hoping the bad blood doesn’t spill on to the two parties’ cadres. medium105586088Both Shinde’s and Ajit Pawar’s MLAs face legal challenges in the Supreme Court. An adverse verdict could take the BJP-led government back to square one.A positive verdict will only maintain the status quo till the 2024 Lok Sabha poll. The friction between the Shinde Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP MLAs will not ease. The 2024 Lok Sabha poll will be followed in October 2024 by the Maharashtra assembly election where Ajit Pawar will push his case for the CM’s berth.Muddying the waters further, the agitation by Maratha leader Manoj Jarange Patil on reservations for his community has caused a cleavage with other backward castes (OBCs) led by NCP leader and state cabinet minister Chhagan Bhujbal.Jarange Patil warned his supporters last week against supporting the BJP-led government: “Those whom our forefathers had supported have become well-known. Now, the same people are not bothered about the plight of Marathas. Our forefathers erred in supporting and trusting the wrong people. Today, our children are crying forhelp, urging them to lend a helping hand. But these people are not even ready to listen to them.”Marathas comprise 31% of Maharashtra’s electorate. An escalation of Maratha-OBC tension will hurt the BJP-led government in the state ahead of both Lok Sabha and assembly elections in 2024. medium105586335Why are Marathas fighting Marathas in this quota battle? medium105586341The Fadnavis factorWith hindsight, it’s clear that the BJP leadership erred in not nominating Fadnavis as CM after the Uddhav Thackeray-led MVA government collapsed following Shinde’s rebellion.Shinde would have been willing to serve as deputy CM under Fadnavis. Ajit Pawar’s entry as deputy CM would have meant a balanced troika with Fadnavis leading two deputy CMs.By compelling Fadnavis to be deputy CM – a poorly thought-out tactical move – the BJP leadership has opened up a can of worms.A further problem will arise when seat sharing negotiations begun for the state’s 48 Lok Sabha seats.Going by state MP and MLA numbers, the BJP should contest 32 seats, leaving eight seats each for the Shinde and Ajit Pawar factions. Both are angling for at least 12 seats each, leaving the BJP with just 24 seats to contest.In an interview with TOI on November 25, 2023, Fadnavis was at his diplomatic best. While claiming the BJP would contest just 26 Lok Sabha seats in 2024, leaving 22 seats for the Shinde and Ajit Pawar groups, Fadnavis added: “Certainly, this is not the final word, and discussions and negotiations will be held at different levels before a final decision is taken.”Those negotiations with Shinde and Ajit Pawar could prove a critical point in the relationship between the three alliance partners. Two is company, three is a crowd. It’s a dictum the BJP central leadership should have paid heed to.Read more from the author here