Is Pakistan really serious about replacing hate with hope?

Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has congratulated Narendra Modi for taking over as PM for the third time, but more significant was a felicitation message from the elder Sharif — former PM Nawaz Sharif, who spoke about replacing “hate with hope”.Nawaz said Modi’s success in the election reflects the confidence of the people in his leadership.“Let us replace hate with hope and seize the opportunity to shape the destiny of the two billion people of South Asia,” said Nawaz, who was recently re-elected president of his party, in a post on X. My warm felicitations to Modi Ji ( @narendramodi ) on assuming office for the third time. Your party's success in recent elections reflects the confidence of the people in your leadership. Let us replace hate with hope and seize the oppurtunity to shape the destiny of the two…

— Nawaz Sharif (@NawazSharifMNS) June 10, 2024 Modi expressed appreciation for the message, saying the people of India have always stood for peace, security and progressive ideas.“Advancing the well-being and security of our people shall always remain our priority,” said Modi, who did not invite Pakistan for the inauguration of his third term. Modi’s emphasis on security is in line with his government’s long-held position that Pakistan’s continued support to cross-border terrorism is not conducive for dialogue.It was under Modi and Nawaz in 2015 that the two sides had their last substantive engagement. This was followed by Modi’s famous drop-by in Lahore on Nawaz’s birthday.Nawaz’s message to Modi comes days after his candid admission that Pakistan violated the 1999 Lahore peace agreement signed by him and his Indian counterpart Atal Bihari Vajpayee.This constitutes the first direct peace outreach to India since the coalition government in Pakistan took power earlier this year.This story was first published on May 31, 2024. medium110898948Former Pakistan premier Nawaz Sharif on May 28 admitted that Islamabad had “violated” an agreement with India signed by him and ex-prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee in 1999, in an apparent reference to the Kargil misadventure by Gen Pervez Musharraf.“On May 28, 1998, Pakistan carried out five nuclear tests. After that Vajpayee saheb came here [Lahore] and made an agreement with us. But we violated that agreement...it was our fault,” Sharif told a meeting of the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) that elected him president of the ruling party six years after he was disqualified by the Supreme Court.The Lahore Declaration signed in February 1999 laid out a vision of peace and stability between the two countries. But a few months later, a Pakistani intrusion in the Kargil district of Jammu and Kashmir led to the Kargil War. medium110598319“[US] President Bill Clinton had offered Pakistan $5bn to stop it from carrying out nuclear tests but I refused. Had [former prime minister] Imran Khan like a person been on my seat, he would have accepted Clinton’s offer,” Sharif said on a day when Pakistan marked the 26th anniversary of its first nuclear tests.Sharif, 74, also talked about how he was removed from the PM’s office in 2017 on a false case by the then chief justice of Pakistan, Saqib Nisar. He said all cases against him were false while the cases against Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) founder-leader Imran were true.He also talked about the role of former spy agency chief Gen Zahirul Islam in toppling his government in 2017 to bring Imran into power. He asked Imran to deny that he was not launched by the Pakistani intelligence agency.“I ask Imran not to blame us [of being patronised by the army] and tell whether Gen Islam had talked about bringing the PTI into power,” he said and added Imran would sit at the feet of the military establishment. medium110598823Nawaz signals peaceThe latest remarks by Sharif are seen as significant also because they come in the middle of Indian election, and just before the results are declared on June 4. “It must be read as a significant signal from Pakistan’s currently most important civilian leader for India’s incoming government,” says former Indian high commissioner to Pakistan Ajay Bisaria.Sharif enjoys a strong rapport with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and it was under him, in 2015, that the two countries last had a substantive bilateral engagement, although the comprehensive dialogue they launched to address all issues, including Jammu and Kashmir and terrorism, was quickly undone by the 2016 Pathankot terrorist attack.The Sharif brothers (Nawaz’s brother Shehbaz is the current PM) may hope to break the deadlock in ties if the Modi government returns next week but, for India in that case, the onus will remain squarely on Islamabad to make the first move as it was Pakistan that recalled its high commissioner and called off trade ties, after India revoked the special status of J&K in 2019.Watch: 'Pak violated Lahore agreement in 1999' medium nocaption110507178There was a hint of some forward movement by Pakistan in March when foreign minister Ishaq Dar said Islamabad would consider restoring trade ties with India. That Pakistan remains conflicted about ties with India was evident again when his own ministry quickly clarified there was no change in its position.Pakistan officially maintains that talks are possible only if India reverses its actions in Kashmir.No Indian government, of course, will accede to any such demand by Pakistan, except for working towards an early return to statehood as asked for by the Supreme Court in a verdict last year that upheld the nullification of the special status of the erstwhile state.Pakistan maintains statehood and polls cannot be a substitute to Kashmiris’ “right to self-determination”. Whether it can show any flexibility on the issue, without recourse to cross-border terrorism, may determine the road ahead if the Modi government indeed returns.India’s stand on PoKThe possibility of talks with Islamabad also depends on whether India will stop talking about taking back Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK).After coming to power in 2014, the Modi government initially made overtures of peace to Islamabad. However, of late, it has been more vocal about India’s sovereignty over PoK.Reaffirming New Delhi’s stand that PoK is an integral part of India, foreign minister S Jaishankar said last month that this is not just the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party’s position but that of the whole country.“India’s Parliament has taken a united stand and every political party in the country has supported that stand. We will never accept that PoK is not a part of India. It’s a united stand, it remains our stand,” Jaishankar said addressing a press conference in Thiruvananthapuram on April 4.Watch: 'Committed to ensuring PoK's return to India' medium nocaption109975868The next day, defence minister Rajnath Singh echoed similar views. “PoK was, is and will always remain an integral part of India. Be assured that the people of Pakistan will themselves demand that they be with India…” he said in an interview to a news channel.More recently, Union home minister Amit Shah said “PoK is part of India and we will take it.”Referring to recent protests in PoK, Shah said while peace has returned to once trouble-torn Kashmir after the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019, PoK “now echoes with slogans of Azadi and protests”.In May, the region witnessed violent protests over high power tariff and rising food prices that left four people dead and nearly 100 injured.Vajapayee’s bus ride to LahoreIt was a short-lived thaw in stormy relations between India and Pakistan when Vajpayee took a bus to Lahore in 1999 and hugged Nawaz, leaving an endearing image that symbolised hope in bilateral ties.Vajpayee took the bus from Amritsar to Lahore with a delegation that included late actor Dev Anand, writer Javed Akhtar and cricketer Kapil Dev.“I bring the goodwill and hope of my fellow Indians who seek abiding peace and harmony with Pakistan... I’m conscious that this is a defining moment in South Asian history and I hope we will be able to rise to the challenge,” had said on his arrival in Lahore. medium110598286After the talks between the two PMs on February 21, 1999, the Lahore Declaration was signed.The agreement aimed to establish a framework for peaceful relations between the two nations, ensuring that all issues, including the contentious issue of Jammu and Kashmir, would be resolved through peaceful means.Additionally, New Delhi and Islamabad agreed to implement immediate steps to reduce the risk of accidental or unauthorised use of nuclear weapons, along with other confidence-building measures.How Pakistan breached Lahore pactIn 1999, shortly after the Lahore Declaration was signed, Pakistani forces, disguised as Kashmiri militants, infiltrated into the Indian side and occupied the Indian Army’s winter-vacated posts.The operation, codenamed ‘Operation Badr’, aimed to sever the connection between Kashmir and Ladakh, isolate the Indian Army on the Siachen Glacier and force India to negotiate a settlement over the Kashmir dispute.Upon detecting the infiltration, India deployed its Air Force to reclaim the winter-vacated posts, encountering intruders that included Pakistani Army personnel. This led to the launch of Operation Vijay by the Indian Army. medium110598302The conflict took place in harsh terrain at altitudes of 5,000m with steep, jagged hill faces, presenting significant tactical and logistical challenges for the Indian forces. This confrontation is notable for being the only instance of conventional warfare between two nuclear-armed countries.After two months of intense fighting, the war concluded on July 26, 1999 with the Indian Army recapturing all its posts in Kargil that had been occupied by the Pakistan Army. Since then, July 26 has been observed annually as Kargil Vijay Diwas to commemorate the sacrifices made by Indian soldiers in this war.The Kargil War occurred 52 years after Indian independence and was masterminded by Musharraf, who was then the chief of the Pakistan Army.After his failed misadventure in Kargil, Musharraf deposed Sharif in a bloodless coup in 1999 and ruled Pakistan from 1999 to 2008 in various positions — first as the chief executive of Pakistan and later as the president.Key takeaways from Lahore pactIt was agreed upon that India and Pakistan…* shall intensify their efforts to resolve all issues, including the issue of J&K* shall refrain from intervention and interference in each other’s internal affairs* shall intensify their composite and integrated dialogue process for an early and positive outcome of the agreed bilateral agenda* shall take immediate steps for reducing the risk of accidental or unauthorised use of nuclear weapons and discuss concepts and doctrines with a view to elaborating measures for confidence building in the nuclear and conventional fields, aimed at prevention of conflict* reaffirm their commitment to the goals and objectives of Saarc and to concert their efforts towards the realisation of the Saarc vision for 2000 and beyond with a view to promoting the welfare of the peoples of South Asia and to improve their quality of life through accelerated economic growth, social progress and cultural development* reaffirm their condemnation of terrorism in all its forms and manifestations and their determination to combat this menace* shall promote and protect all human rights and fundamental freedomsWith inputs from Sachin Parashar, Rajesh Sharma and agencies.