Iceland’s volcanic eruptions likely to last for decades, say researchers

Geologists are warning that volcanic eruptions may continue to plague Iceland's most populated region for years or even decades to come. This warning comes from an international team of researchers, including experts from the Universities of Oregon and California at San Diego, after studying the series of eruptions that began on the Reykjanes Peninsula in 2021.

The researchers' analysis has revealed that all the recent eruptions have been fed from a shared magma reservoir lying about 6.5 miles beneath the volcano Fagradalsfjall. This magma reservoir is constantly being topped up by material rising from deeper within the Earth's mantle. Given this, the researchers expect more moderately sized eruptions of the kind that have forced the repeated (and sometimes permanent) evacuation of the town of Grindavík and surrounding areas in recent months.
Iceland's volcanic activity is a result of its unique geographic position. The island sits atop the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, where the Eurasian and North American tectonic plates are slowly spreading apart. This, combined with a mantle hot spot beneath the island, causes magma to regularly well up towards the surface. In fact, the entire island of Iceland has been built up by successive volcanic eruptions over the past 20 million years.

Historically, Iceland has faced volcanic eruptions about once every three to five years across the entire island. However, since 2021, the Reykjanes Peninsula alone has experienced eight separate fissure eruptions. This peninsula is home to 70% of Iceland's population, meaning these eruptions pose a considerable risk to urban areas, critical infrastructure, and the country's only international airport.
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The researchers analysed earthquake data and lava samples to gain insights into the geological processes driving these recent eruptions. They found evidence of a shared magma reservoir beneath the peninsula, fed by molten rock rising from the mantle hot spot. This suggests the potential for a prolonged period of volcanic activity in the region, possibly lasting for years or even decades.

While the researchers are certain that more eruptions are on the way, the exact pattern and frequency of future events remains uncertain. “Nature is never simple," said volcanologist Ilya Bindeman of the University of Oregon. "We don't know how long and how frequently it will continue for the next ten or even hundred years. A pattern will emerge, but nature always has exceptions and irregularities," he further added.

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The researchers plan to further investigate the volcanic activity by drilling into the sites to acquire more detailed information on the eruption processes. Iceland's relatively runny, non-explosive magma makes it an ideal ‘natural laboratory’ for scientists to study active volcanoes up close. As study author Valentin Troll noted, "When you witness a volcanic eruption, you can feel that these are the massive forces of nature, and you yourself are very small." While these events may be ordinary on a geological timescale, they can be devastating for the human populations in their path.