Natural Gas

Today in Energy

Recent Today in Energy analysis of natural gas markets is available on the EIA website.

Market Highlights:

Prices

• Henry Hub spot price: The Henry Hub spot price rose 32 cents from $2.05 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $2.37/MMBtu yesterday.
• Henry Hub futures price: The price of the August 2024 NYMEX contract decreased 8.9 cents, from $2.418/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.329/MMBtu yesterday. The price of the 12-month strip averaging August 2024 through July 2025 futures contracts declined 7.7 cents to $3.001/MMBtu.
• Select regional spot prices: Natural gas spot prices rose at all locations this report week (Wednesday, July 3, to Wednesday, July 10). Price changes ranged from an increase of 19 cents at the FGT Citygate to an increase of $5.33 at the Waha Hub in West Texas.
• Prices in the Northeast rose this report week as temperatures increased across the region. At the Algonquin Citygate, which serves Boston-area consumers, the price rose 53 cents from $1.40/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.93/MMBtu yesterday. In the Boston Area, average weekly temperatures rose 6°F this report week to an average of 78°F, resulting in 89 cooling degree days (CDD), 28 CDDs higher than normal and 39 more CDDs than the previous week. Natural gas consumption in New England in the electric power sector rose 39% (0.5 billion cubic feet per day [Bcf/d]) from the previous week due to rising air-conditioning consumption in the region, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. At the Transcontinental Pipeline Zone 6 trading point for New York City, the price rose 37 cents from $1.43/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.80/MMBtu yesterday. Average temperatures in the New York-Central Park Area increased 9°F this report week to an average of 83°F, resulting in 129 CDDs, 44 more CDDs than normal and 60 more CDDs than last week. Electric power sector consumption of natural gas in New York and New Jersey rose 31% (0.8 Bcf/d) compared with last week, data from S&P Global Commodity Insights showed. Similar price changes were also seen in Appalachia at the Eastern Gas South pricing hub, located near Pittsburgh.
• Prices in California rose this week as higher average temperatures increased air-conditioning consumption. The price at SoCal Citygate in Southern California increased $1.01 from $2.02/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.03/MMBtu yesterday. The price at PG&E Citygate in Northern California rose 60 cents from $2.80/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.40/MMBtu yesterday. Average weekly temperatures in the Riverside Area, east of Los Angeles, rose 3°F from last week to 82°F, which is 5°F above normal. Temperatures in the San Jose Area averaged 77°F this week, 8°F above normal. Across California, natural gas consumption by the electric power sector rose 44% (0.8 Bcf/d) on the week, data from S&P Global Commodity Insights showed. The price at Northwest Sumas on the Canada-Washington border, the main pricing point for natural gas in the Pacific Northwest, rose 58 cents from $1.40/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.98/MMBtu yesterday. In the Seattle City Area, average temperatures rose 10°F from last report week to 74°F, which is 9°F above normal, leading to 66 CDDs, 54 CDDs more than normal.
• The price at the Houston Ship Channel rose this week despite widespread power outages because of Hurricane Beryl. The Houston Ship Channel price rose 50 cents from $1.45/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.95/MMBtu yesterday. On Monday, Hurricane Beryl made landfall at Matagorda, Texas, approximately 40 miles from Houston, Texas, bringing heavy rains and strong winds to coastal areas, leaving over 1.5 million people without electricity in the Greater Houston area. Weekly average natural gas consumption by the electric power sector in South Texas fell by 7% (0.4 Bcf/d) this week, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. In the Houston Area, average weekly temperatures fell 4°F from last report week to 85°F this week, with the intraweek low temperatures occurring between Sunday and Wednesday. Consumption of natural gas for liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports fell 19% (0.7 Bcf/d) on the week after Freeport LNG, located south of Houston, shut down its liquefaction plant on Sunday as a precautionary measure for Hurricane Beryl.
• The price at the Waha Hub, located near Permian Basin production activities, rose $5.33 from -$3.80/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.54/MMBtu yesterday. The Waha price last Wednesday was the lowest price since May 6, 2024, when the price was -$4.60/MMBtu. The Waha price rose above zero on July 8, after the El Paso Natural Gas company lifted the force majeure on Line 2000, raising capacity at the Gila and Casa C constraints on July 5. Prices at the Waha Hub rose above $1.00/MMBtu for the first time since June 14, when the price was $1.01/MMBtu. Waha prices have remained low for most of 2024 due to capacity reductions from maintenance on pipelines that take the natural gas to demand centers in the West and along the Gulf Coast.

Daily spot prices by region are available on the EIA website.

• International futures prices: International natural gas futures prices decreased this report week. According to Bloomberg Finance, L.P., weekly average front-month futures prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes in East Asia decreased 8 cents to a weekly average of $12.49/MMBtu. Natural gas futures for delivery at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands decreased 13 cents to a weekly average of $10.51/MMBtu. In the same week last year (week ending July 12, 2023), the prices were $12.04/MMBtu in East Asia and $9.78/MMBtu at TTF.
• Natural gas plant liquids (NGPL) prices: The natural gas plant liquids composite price at Mont Belvieu, Texas, fell by 11 cents/MMBtu, averaging $7.19/MMBtu for the week ending July 10. Ethane prices fell 5% week over week, while weekly average natural gas prices at the Houston Ship Channel decreased 8%, widening the ethane premium to natural gas by 4%. The ethylene spot price rose 2% week over week, and the ethylene premium to ethane increased 4%. Propane prices decreased 2%, while Brent crude oil prices decreased 1% week over week. The propane discount to crude oil increased 1% for the week. Normal butane prices fell 1%, isobutane prices rose 3%, and natural gasoline prices fell 1%.

Supply and Demand

• Supply: According to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights, the average total supply of natural gas rose by 1.0% (1.0 Bcf/d) compared with the previous report week. Dry natural gas production grew by 0.3% (0.3 Bcf/d) to average 101.7 Bcf/d, and average net imports from Canada increased by 12.0% (0.8 Bcf/d) from last week.
• Demand: Total U.S. consumption of natural gas rose by 6.0% (4.4 Bcf/d) compared with the previous report week, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas consumed for power generation climbed by 10.0% (4.3 Bcf/d) week over week amid above-normal temperatures on the East and West Coasts. Industrial sector consumption decreased by 0.3% (0.1 Bcf/d) and residential and commercial consumption increased by 1.4% (0.1 Bcf/d). Natural gas exports to Mexico increased 3.1% (0.2 Bcf/d). Natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export facilities (LNG pipeline receipts) averaged 11.9 Bcf/d, or 0.4 Bcf/d lower than last week.

Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)

• Pipeline receipts: Average natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export terminals decreased 0.4 Bcf/d from last week to 11.9 Bcf/d, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Louisiana increased by 4.2% (0.3 Bcf/d) to 7.7 Bcf/d, and natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Texas decreased 19.3% (0.7 Bcf/d) to 3.1 Bcf/d. The decrease in feedgas deliveries to South Texas terminals was due to a shutdown of Freeport LNG as a precautionary measure ahead of Hurricane Beryl. Natural gas deliveries to terminals outside the Gulf Coast were essentially unchanged at 1.2 Bcf/d.
• Vessels departing U.S. ports: Twenty-three LNG vessels (eight from Sabine Pass; four from Corpus Christi; three each from Calcasieu Pass, Cameron, and Freeport; and one each from Cove Point and Elba Island) with a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 85 Bcf departed the United States between July 4 and July 10, according to shipping data provided by Bloomberg Finance, L.P.
• LNG Terminals: Hurricane Beryl, which made a landfall near Houston, Texas, on July 8, reduced feedgas demand by 2 Bcf/d, with much of that decrease coming from a shutdown of Freeport LNG as a precaution. Freeport LNG is located 40 miles to the northeast of the hurricane’s landfall. Exports from the Freeport LNG terminal are expected to resume after the port, which is currently operating under restrictions, is fully re-opened, according to Reuters.

Rig Count

• According to Baker Hughes, for the week ending Tuesday, July 2, the natural gas rig count rose by 4 rigs from a week ago to 101 rigs. The Eagle Ford added one rig, the Permian added two rigs, and one rig was added among unidentified producing regions. The number of oil-directed rigs was unchanged on the week. The Permian dropped two rigs, the Eagle Ford added one rig, and one rig was added among unidentified producing regions. The total rig count, which includes 5 miscellaneous rigs, now stands at 585 rigs, 95 fewer rigs than a year ago.

Storage

• Net injections into storage totaled 65 Bcf for the week ending July 5, compared with the five-year (2019–2023) average net injections of 57 Bcf and last year's net injections of 57 Bcf during the same week. Working natural gas stocks totaled 3,199 Bcf, which is 504 Bcf (19%) more than the five-year average and 283 Bcf (10%) more than last year at this time.
• According to The Desk survey of natural gas analysts, estimates of the weekly net change to working natural gas stocks ranged from net injections of 51 Bcf to 68 Bcf, with a median estimate of 59 Bcf.
• The average rate of injections into storage is 12% lower than the five-year average so far in the refill season (April through October). If the rate of injections into storage matched the five-year average of 8.6 Bcf/d for the remainder of the refill season, the total inventory would be 4,216 Bcf on October 31, which is 504 Bcf higher than the five-year average of 3,712 Bcf for that time of year.

See also:

• Natural Gas Analysis Reports
• Short-Term Energy Outlook