Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

We are pleased to announce that Justice Mariano-Florentino (Tino) Cuéllar of the Supreme Court of California will become the next president of the Carnegie Endowment. https://lnkd.in/ezGWRXCx

Carnegie recently hosted the inaugural Carnegie Africa Forum, a one-day conference that brought together leading policy experts, thought leaders, and diplomats to spotlight their perspectives on a range of critical issues facing the continent. Panel discussions spanned from conversations on the human and environmental impacts of the race to net-zero on Africa, to a special convening of four former U.S. assistant secretaries of state for African Affairs, who offered insights into the future of U.S.-Africa relations drawing upon their experience as diplomats. This conference was also a unique opportunity for the Carnegie Africa Program, led by Zainab Usman, Ph.D., to showcase its dynamic network of scholars and collection of policy analysis that the program has developed since its founding in 2021, highlighting Africa’s role in the era of climate change, evolving great power competition, and the digital revolution.

In my latest piece for Foreign Policy, I reflect on the NAACP's recent commentary on Biden's Gaza policy and the opportunities this presents for fostering dialogue among Democratic leaders, progressives, and the anti-war elements of the African American community. https://lnkd.in/eq8d6tE3

🇷🇺 | In a surprising move, President Putin has appointed state economist Andrei Belousov as Russia's new defense minister. In his new Foreign Affairs Magazine article, Senior Fellow Andrei Kolesnikov argues that this decision signals a shift toward a new economic model—"one that is essentially a Soviet economy, but with important market elements." Putin and Belousov are betting that their approach will save Russia and its economy. But history suggests that "an economy built on war cannot survive forever," and a return to Soviet-style centralization risks undoing liberal foundations built during the economic reform of the 1990s. 📝 Lessons from Russia's History: 1️⃣ Kosygin Reforms: During the Brezhnev era, Prime Minister Alexei Kosygin aimed to give enterprises more autonomy and align production with demand. Despite initial growth, the absence of a market and private property led to their failure. 2️⃣ The Soviet Petrocracy: By the late 1960s, Soviet labor shortages and economic challenges paralleled those facing Putin's Russia today. Spending was inefficient and new technologies were underutilized, but lucrative oil profits and costly geopolitical maneuvers like the invasion of Czechoslovakia made economic reform less of a priority. "These were the factors that would later lead to [the] hyperinflation" that followed the Soviet Union's collapse. 3️⃣ In the 1990s, Russia underwent significant economic liberalization, contrasting sharply with Gorbachev's cautious reforms in the 1980s. Despite attempts to allow economic initiatives, Gorbachev avoided drastic changes needed for true transformation. This reluctance contributed to Soviet economic crises and, ultimately, the Union's collapse after the 1991 coup. 4️⃣ In 1991, Boris Yeltsin embraced radical economic reforms led by Gaidar and Chubais to rescue Russia from Soviet collapse. Dubbed the "Chicago Boys," they implemented liberalization, privatization, and price reforms despite parliamentary opposition. Despite criticism, these measures established a market economy, replenished store shelves, and transformed economic dynamics swiftly. 5️⃣ Born in the 1950s, Russian economic reformers under Yeltsin emerged from Soviet stagnation with a critical view of socialism. They institutionalized their ideas and shaped policy despite regime crackdowns. Putin, however, diverged from their liberal approach, favoring technocratic and conservative strategies. 🖊️Kolesnikov warns that Belousov's new economic approach is reminiscent of the Soviet Union's inefficiencies and risks a larger collapse for Russia. 📖 Read the full paper now: https://fam.ag/4bHtGtI. #Russia #Ukraine #Putin #Economics

Will Iran's new president Masoud Pezeshkian change the country's foreign policy? Middle East Program Senior Fellow Karim Sadjadpour doesn't think so. He writes in The Washington Post: "Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, a former minister of health, is not, as Western press reports imply, a liberal reformer. His election is another false dawn. The 45-year history of the Islamic Republic of Iran portends that Pezeshkian, 69, will not meaningfully change Iran’s internal or external conduct, challenge the authority of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, restore the regime’s lost legitimacy, or pacify popular discontent." Read more⤵️ https://wapo.st/3xSsnKx

🇷🇺 🇺🇸 | As Russia's influence in Africa expands, many countries in the region are turning away from Western allies, posing challenges for U.S. policy in the region. How can Washington counter this? Senior Fellow Frederic Wehrey and Vice President for Studies Andrew S. Weiss explore this question in a recent Foreign Affairs Magazine article. They highlight factors that have shaped Russia's expanding footprint across Africa and offer recommendations for U.S. policymakers. 🌍 Understanding Russia's Growing Influence in Africa: Key Takeaways 🚀 1️⃣ Strategic Expansion: Russia has capitalized on democratic setbacks, military coups, and authoritarian surges in Africa to bolster its influence in the region. This includes significant involvement in countries like Mali, Burkina Faso, and Sudan, where it offers military aid and regime protection. 2️⃣ The Importance of Libya: Libya's fragmentation following the 2011 uprising created "an opening for Russian intervention" and led to destabilization of neighboring countries. Establishing a stronghold in Libya, Moscow was able to project power into sub-Saharan Africa, gain access to resources, and facilitate military deployments across the region. 3️⃣ US Policy Shift: The article suggests a nuanced approach for U.S. policymakers. Wehrey and Weiss argue that instead of engaging in a blanket competition with Russia, Washington should selectively focus on supporting African partners committed to good governance, economic growth, and security. This targeted strategy aims to enhance long-term stability and diminish Russian appeal to countries in the region. 4️⃣ Selective Engagement: Wehrey and Weiss note that there are some cases in which "the U.S. should push back against Russia through sanctions, diplomacy, pressure campaigns, or intelligence operations." However, they advise that this should be reserved for cases involving vital American interests and warn that Washington ought to recognize the limitations of outbidding Russia in every scenario. 5️⃣ Looking Ahead: As African nations seek diverse partnerships, the U.S. can strengthen its influence by offering strategic alliances based on mutual benefit and shared values. By emphasizing collaboration over competition, Washington can more effectively navigate Africa's evolving geopolitical landscape. #Geopolitics #Africa #Russia #USForeignPolicy #GlobalAffairs 📖 Read the full article here: https://lnkd.in/eG7a7xXp.

🌍 How would NATO fare under a potential Trump 2024 term? Experts remain divided on the issue. Scholars at Carnegie share their thoughts: ⭐ Europe Program Director Dan Baer emphasizes the enduring value and resilience of NATO, despite potential challenges like weakened credibility. ⭐ Europe Program Senior Fellow Alper Coşkun remains confident in NATO’s endurance, underscoring NATO's critical role in Euro-Atlantic security amid evolving geopolitical landscapes. ⭐ American Statecraft Program Senior Fellow Stephen Wertheim is convinced that “something calling itself NATO will almost certainly exist at the end of a second Trump term.” But he also warns of significant shifts in U.S. engagement that could redefine NATO's leadership and strategic direction. As the U.S. navigates potential changes in transatlantic relations, understanding these diverse perspectives becomes increasingly crucial. Read more here: https://fam.ag/460Mq68 #NATO #Trump2024 #Geopolitics #TransatlanticRelations

Many democracy advocates around the world exhaled after the election of Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, also known as Lula, and hoped for greater cooperation on the global stage. Yet, while there are areas of agreement, the United States and Brazil do not always see eye to eye on major challenges. Brazil’s current G20 leadership offers a unique opportunity to assert its vision and influence the agenda.    What is President Lula’s vision for its global leadership?    President Lula’s foreign policy advisor, H.E. Ambassador Celso Amorim and   Dan Baer convene for a fireside chat on issues ranging from democracy to climate change, trade, and artificial intelligence, as well as the potential of the U.S.-Brazil Agreement on Trade and Economic Partnership (ATEC). Carnegie President Mariano-Florentino (Tino) Cuéllar will also deliver opening remarks.    Join us on July 18 at 11:30 AM for an in-person conversation: https://lnkd.in/eYpNKfqA

This past spring many college and university campuses were roiled by unprecedented protests sparked by the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza. Not since Vietnam has any foreign policy issue resulted in such widespread demonstrations on campuses. What lessons can be learned from these protests, and are productive conversations on the conflict possible? Join Aaron David Miller as he connects with Keren Yarhi-Milo, dean of Columbia | SIPA, & Amaney A. Jamal, dean of Princeton School of Public and International Affairs, on July 18 at 1 PM as they explore these questions and the larger impact of these protests from their unique perspectives as policy experts and academic administrators. RSVP here: https://lnkd.in/dQVjzeJW

Join us Wednesday July 17! Carnegie hosts the second annual New Voices, New Ideas Conference, an interactive opportunity for students and young professionals to network, meet mentors, and participate in substantive nuclear policy discussions with guest speakers and a nuclear crisis simulation. The event is free to attend and no prior nuclear policy background or experience is needed to participate—just an interest in the field. To learn more about eligibility requirements and to register, please visit: https://bit.ly/3VSo6ia