CEO @Noosa Labs | I buy and grow small profitable SaaS businesses | Venture Partner @Long Journey Ventures.
Khosla Ventures invested $40M in OpenAI in the early days (now it’s worth ~$4B). Genius move? Not really. They followed the “magically weird” rule. Let’s be honest, OpenAI wasn’t that obvious: - It was a non-profit - It did not have a clear product - Machine learning felt they had hit a plateau in 2019 And yet it may be the defining Company of the next epoch. At Long Journey Ventures, we say we “chase the magically weird”. What does it mean? 👉 It can be an idea that feels crazy or very novel 👉 It can be an idea that seems magically boring, yet the founder is so engrossed in it because she/he is magically weird her/himself. I look at my portfolio ► Crusoe Energy ($2B): using stranded energy to mine Bitcoin? ► Notion ($10B): part wiki - part web-flow-like product - how big was this market in 2013? ► Checkr ($5B): background checks? Aren’t there 100s of competitors already? ► Instadeep (acquired for $650M): An AI research lab in Europe and Africa, seriously, in 2016? ► Spotter ($1.2B): financing for Youtube creators in 2018? This feels “PE” stuff, not venture scale. ► Kin Insurance ($1.1B): why build an insurance Company in markets with natural disasters? Even in my anti-portfolio ► Deel ($12B): remote contractors in foreign countries? How big was that in 2019? Some crazy ideas don’t work, unfortunately - you need good timing and luck. But Notion's founders started it way before the “future of work” wave. OpenAI, and Instadeep (or Crusoe) way before the AI wave. Spotter way before the “creator economy” wave. You can make money investing in “in-market ideas” but you need exceptional founders. And as important: understand the market perfectly, which is much harder to do as a generalist. Now, you know the rule. Ps : what are the most magically weird ideas you have encountered recently? — My name is Pascal, I share my insights and vision on the Tech industry for bootstrapped and venture-scale founders. Plus transparent and actionable advice on how to grow your SaaS business. Follow for more content 🙂 #entrepreneur #startup #AI
Do you regret not investing in deel?
Kohosla made 3000+ investments. you hihlighted a best one. You never say where they failed.
To be fair, the Deel call in 2019 was actually not as tough to make. There were already multiple players that started before them and created the market (with clear success) before Deel came in as a fast follower. It was a need that existed for a long time, but with no elegant solution.
Excellent examples... Atm I would put Neko Health on the 'magically weird 2024' list... Shifting healthcare from reactive to preventive... Nobody believes them ✅ Bold vision ✅ system today would flip 180 degrees ✅... Wdyt?
I am working on a crazy idea. We want to rebuild social media to make it actually social. On Wander, AI agents gamify social life for Gen Z. Users can serendipitously come across new friends and naturally "go deep" with existing friends. Product launched, initial users love us. Would love to send you the app and our user growth and retention data!
'Magically weird' - love that! My 'magically weird' idea? A self-folding laundry basket powered by AI that sorts your clothes while you sleep. Investors, take note! 😁 But seriously, this is a great point about not being afraid to back seemingly crazy ideas with the right founders.
Great post; I agree those magical companies are normally the ones that fall outside the standard VC model. Would love to chat further and see how we can be a resource for each other going forward.
Investment.. in life extension tech. Potentially.
When it comes to product most people call “magic” those concepts they don’t understand.
Building high-growth MVPs for tech startups. CEO @ Fruxd. CPO @ Glovendor.
1moThis is a good point. The problem I see with most founders is they don't actually know what problem they're solving when they build a business or product. So many have jumped on that AI bandwagon because it's a cool trend. 90% of them will be gone in the next 2 years. Why? Funding ran out. No market fit. No sellable product. No hustle. The "build it and they will come" mentality is killing these startups. The ones who succeed may be due in part to "luck", but my observation is that they actually know who their customer is, what their problems are, and figured out a way to address those problems with either a product or a service.