Little is known about progression, short of dementia, in vascular cognitive impairment. In the Canadian Study of Health and Aging, 149 participants (79.3 +/- 6.7 years; 61% women) were found to have vascular cognitive impairment, no dementia (CIND). After 5 years, 77 participants (52%) had died and 58 (46%) had developed dementia. Women were at greater risk of dementia (OR 2.1, 1.0 to 4.5). Of 32 participants alive without dementia, cognition had deteriorated in seven and improved in four. Half of those with vascular CIND developed dementia within 5 years, suggesting a target for preventive interventions.