Refining predictive models in critically ill patients with acute renal failure

J Am Soc Nephrol. 2002 May;13(5):1350-7. doi: 10.1097/01.asn.0000014692.19351.52.

Abstract

Mortality rates in acute renal failure remain extremely high, and risk-adjustment tools are needed for quality improvement initiatives and design (stratification) and analysis of clinical trials. A total of 605 patients with acute renal failure in the intensive care unit during 1989-1995 were evaluated, and demographic, historical, laboratory, and physiologic variables were linked with in-hospital death rates using multivariable logistic regression. Three hundred and fourteen (51.9%) patients died in-hospital. The following variables were significantly associated with in-hospital death: age (odds ratio [OR], 1.02 per yr), male gender (OR, 2.36), respiratory (OR, 2.62), liver (OR, 3.06), and hematologic failure (OR, 3.40), creatinine (OR, 0.71 per mg/dl), blood urea nitrogen (OR, 1.02 per mg/dl), log urine output (OR, 0.64 per log ml/d), and heart rate (OR, 1.01 per beat/min). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.83, indicating good model discrimination. The model was superior in all performance metrics to six generic and four acute renal failure-specific predictive models. A disease-specific severity of illness equation was developed using routinely available and specific clinical variables. Cross-validation of the model and additional bedside experience will be needed before it can be effectively applied across centers, particularly in the context of clinical trials.

Publication types

  • Comparative Study
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Acute Kidney Injury / mortality*
  • Acute Kidney Injury / physiopathology
  • Acute Kidney Injury / therapy
  • Critical Illness
  • Female
  • Hospital Mortality*
  • Humans
  • Logistic Models
  • Male
  • Models, Statistical
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • ROC Curve
  • Renal Dialysis
  • Risk Assessment
  • Risk Factors
  • Severity of Illness Index*