Abstract
We compared the hypothetical effects of the 23-valent polysaccharide pneumococcal vaccine with new vaccines on preventing invasive and noninvasive pneumococcal disease in persons >or=65 years. We estimated how much disease would occur if no polysaccharide vaccine were in use and used this baseline to compare the polysaccharide, a 7-valent conjugate vaccine, and hypothetical common antigen vaccine. The polysaccharide, conjugate, and common antigen vaccines prevented 10.6, 10.7, and 17.7% of invasive disease and 4.3, 5.6, and 10.0% of pneumonia, respectively. Superior effectiveness of new vaccines was dependent upon a presumed longer duration of protection than the 23V-PPV and effectiveness against noninvasive pneumonia. Our results suggest that new vaccines could improve disease prevention.
MeSH terms
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Aged
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Aged, 80 and over
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Aging / physiology
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Bacterial Outer Membrane Proteins / chemistry
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Bacterial Outer Membrane Proteins / immunology
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Female
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Humans
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Male
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Pneumococcal Infections / immunology
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Pneumococcal Infections / mortality
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Pneumococcal Infections / prevention & control*
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Pneumococcal Vaccines / administration & dosage*
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Pneumococcal Vaccines / immunology
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Polysaccharides, Bacterial / administration & dosage*
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Polysaccharides, Bacterial / chemistry
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Polysaccharides, Bacterial / immunology
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Sensitivity and Specificity
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Streptococcus pneumoniae / immunology
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Survival Analysis
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Treatment Outcome
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Vaccines, Conjugate / administration & dosage
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Vaccines, Conjugate / chemistry
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Vaccines, Conjugate / immunology
Substances
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Bacterial Outer Membrane Proteins
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Pneumococcal Vaccines
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Polysaccharides, Bacterial
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Vaccines, Conjugate