Predicting repeat self-harm in children--how accurate can we expect to be?

Eur Child Adolesc Psychiatry. 2003 Jan;12(1):23-9. doi: 10.1007/s00787-003-0302-x.

Abstract

The main objective of the study was to find which variables predict repetition of deliberate self-harm in children. The study is based on a group of children who took part in a randomized control trial investigating the effects of a home-based family intervention for children who had deliberately poisoned themselves. These children had a range of baseline and outcome measures collected on two occasions (two and six months follow-up). Outcome data were collected from 149 (92 %) of the initial 162 children over the six months. Twenty-three children made a further deliberate self-harm attempt within the follow-up period. A number of variables at baseline were found to be significantly associated with repeat self-harm. Parental mental health and a history of previous attempts were the strongest predictors. A model of prediction of further deliberate self-harm combining these significant individual variables produced a high positive predictive value (86 %) but had low sensitivity (28 %). Predicting repeat self-harm in children is difficult, even with a comprehensive series of assessments over multiple time points, and we need to adapt services with this in mind. We propose a model of service provision which takes these findings into account.

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Child
  • Female
  • Follow-Up Studies
  • Forecasting
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Models, Psychological*
  • Parent-Child Relations
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Prognosis
  • Psychiatric Status Rating Scales
  • Recurrence
  • Risk Factors
  • Self-Injurious Behavior / psychology*
  • Suicide, Attempted / psychology*