Prediction of transition from cognitive impairment to senile dementia: a prospective, longitudinal study

Acta Psychiatr Scand. 2003 May;107(5):390-3. doi: 10.1034/j.1600-0447.2003.00081.x.

Abstract

Objective: The purpose of this investigation was to replicate the statistical approach used in a previous investigation (Toronto study) within a French population to determine the best predictive model for Alzheimer's disease (AD).

Method: Data from neuropsychological tests from two prospective studies were entered into a regression model.

Results: Replication of the statistical approach in the Montpellier sample produced a three-test model with a specificity of 99% and sensitivity of 73%. This model consisted of a delayed auditory verbal recall test, a construction test, a category fluency test and provides probability estimates for the transition to dementia in individual cases.

Conclusion: The models derived from these two longitudinal studies provide an empirical basis for the selection of tests for the definition of mild cognitive impairment of the Alzheimer type (MCI-A). The small set of tests derived are suitable for use in general practice.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Alzheimer Disease / complications*
  • Alzheimer Disease / diagnosis*
  • Cognition Disorders / complications*
  • Cohort Studies
  • Forecasting
  • Humans
  • Longitudinal Studies
  • Memory Disorders / complications
  • Middle Aged
  • Neuropsychological Tests
  • Ontario
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Prospective Studies
  • Regression Analysis
  • Sensitivity and Specificity
  • Time Factors