Purpose: The objective of the present study was to estimate the proportion of incident cases of breast cancer that should receive breast conserving surgery (BCS), using an evidence-based approach.
Methods: An extensive search of the literature was undertaken to identify eligibility criteria for BCS. The eligibility criteria for BCS were combined with the information about case mix and patient preference to estimate the need for BCS. An epidemiological approach was then used to estimate the incidence of each eligibility criterion for BCS in a typical North American population of breast cancer patients. The effect of sampling error on the estimated appropriate rate of BCS was calculated, and the effect of systematic error using alternative sources of information, was estimated by sensitivity analysis.
Results: The analysis showed that 69.6% of breast cancer cases are eligible for BCS, and that 48.0 +/- 6.0% of breast cancer patients are both eligible for BCS and prefer it to mastectomy. Based on sensitivity analysis, the plausible range of the appropriate rate was 42.1% to 49.43%. The proportion of breast cancer cases in which BCS was appropriate was stage dependent; 63.0 +/- 11.5% in ductal carcinoma in-situ; 57.0 +/- 9.9% in stage I; 52.2 +/- 9.4% in stage II, and 27.2 +/- 5.2% in stage III.
Conclusions: This model suggests that BCS is appropriate in 48% of all breast cancer patients. This information may be useful in auditing surgical practice, and may serve as a basis for planning of ancillary services, including radiotherapy.