Background: Since the incidence of breast cancer is growing, prevention programs can be expected to have a large economic impact on the health care system. From a health economic point of view, one is interested in the costs saved by disease prevention.
Patients and methods: To predict 10-year cumulative incidence-based costs of postmenopausal breast cancer, a state transitional model was developed based on published clinical data. The model simulates disease progression and includes nine health states of 1 year: node-negative and node-positive early cancer; local relapse; metastasis, each with its follow-up states; and death. The cost per state was obtained from a chart review in 118 patients with different disease states. Costs were calculated from the health insurance perspective and discounted at 3%.
Results: The cumulative 10 year cost per patient was equal to 31,774 euro [95% confidence interval (CI) 30,536-33,012 euro] of which 30% was hospital costs, 28% systemic treatment, surgery and radiotherapy and 14% testing. Costs were at their highest following diagnosis and before death.
Conclusions: This incidence-based approach identified the cost of postmenopausal breast cancer over time and may serve as a valid baseline for assessment of new interventions in prevention or early treatment.