Local recurrence after conservative treatment of breast cancer is associated with a significant risk for metastasis. In order to identify criteria predictive of metastasis in this subset of women, we analyzed a series of 35 patients with local relapse among 512 consecutive patients treated with tumorectomy and radiotherapy. When relapse occurred within 2 years of initial treatment, overall 2-year survival from the time of local relapse was 39.5%. When local relapse occurred more than 2 years from initial therapy, 2-year survival was 80.5% (p < 0.001). Pathological slides of both initial and recurrent tumors were reviewed and compared. In 17 patients, local relapse and initial tumor had the same morphological features, with an in-situ component either absent or present in the same proportion. Metastasis occurred in two of these patients. In contrast, 9 of 12 patients in whom the proportion of non-invasive carcinoma had decreased at the time of local recurrence developed metastasis. Overall 2-year survival from the time of relapse was significantly better in the former group of patients (93.3% versus 52.5%, p < 0.05). We concluded that early relapses have a poor prognostic significance and that disappearance of the in-situ component or increase of the invasive component at the time of relapse is a feature predictive of tumor-related death and that more intensive therapy might benefit to this subset of women.