A model of lineage-1 and lineage-2 rinderpest virus transmission in pastoral areas of East Africa

Prev Vet Med. 2005 Jul 12;69(3-4):245-63. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2005.02.001. Epub 2005 Mar 29.

Abstract

The development of a stochastic, state-transition model of rinderpest transmission dynamics is described using parameter estimates obtained from both laboratory and participatory research. Using serological data, the basic reproduction numbers for lineage-1 rinderpest virus in southern Sudan and for lineage-2 rinderpest virus in Somali livestock were estimated as 4.4 and between 1.2 and 1.9, respectively. The model predictions for the inter-epidemic period in Sudan and Somalia (1.2 and 4.2 years, respectively) were in agreement with analysis of livestock-owner reports (1-2 years and 5 years, respectively).

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Animals
  • Antibodies, Viral / blood
  • Cattle
  • Cattle Diseases / epidemiology
  • Cattle Diseases / transmission
  • Cattle Diseases / virology*
  • Disease Outbreaks / veterinary*
  • Immunization / veterinary
  • Models, Biological*
  • Prevalence
  • Rinderpest / epidemiology
  • Rinderpest / transmission*
  • Rinderpest / virology
  • Rinderpest virus / growth & development*
  • Rural Population
  • Somalia / epidemiology
  • Stochastic Processes
  • Sudan / epidemiology

Substances

  • Antibodies, Viral