Incidence of tuberculous meningitis in France, 2000: a capture-recapture analysis

Int J Tuberc Lung Dis. 2005 Jul;9(7):803-8.

Abstract

Objective: To estimate the incidence of culture-positive and culture-negative tuberculous meningitis (TBM) in France in 2000.

Methods: Capture-recapture method using two unrelated sources of data: the tuberculosis (TB) mandatory notification system (MNTB), recording patients treated by anti-tuberculosis drugs, and a survey by the National Reference Centre (NRC) for mycobacterial drug resistance, recording culture-positive TBM.

Results: Of 112 cases of TBM reported to the MNTB, 28 culture-positive and 34 culture-negative meningitis cases were validated (17 duplicates, 3 cases from outside France, 21 false notifications, and 9 lost records were excluded). The NRC recorded 31 culture-positive cases, including 21 known by the MNTB. When the capture-recapture method was applied to the reported culture-positive meningitis cases, the estimated number of meningitis cases was 41 and the incidence was 0.7 cases per million. Sensitivity was 75.6% for the NRC, 68.3% for the MNTB, and 92.7% for both systems together. When sensitivity of the MNTB for culture-positive cases was applied to culture-negative meningitis, the total estimated number of culture-negative meningitis cases was 50 and the incidence was 0.85 cases per million.

Conclusion: TBM is underestimated in France. Capture-recapture analysis using different sources to better estimate its incidence is of great interest.

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Disease Notification
  • Drug Resistance, Microbial
  • Female
  • France / epidemiology
  • Humans
  • Incidence
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Population Surveillance
  • Sensitivity and Specificity
  • Tuberculosis, Meningeal / drug therapy
  • Tuberculosis, Meningeal / epidemiology*