Risk adjusted surgical audit in gynaecological oncology: P-POSSUM does not predict outcome

Eur J Surg Oncol. 2006 Dec;32(10):1135-8. doi: 10.1016/j.ejso.2006.06.010. Epub 2006 Aug 17.

Abstract

Aims: To assess the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enumeration of mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) and its validity for use in gynaecological oncology surgery.

Methods: All patients undergoing gynaecological oncology surgery at the Northern Gynaecological Oncology Centre (NGOC) Gateshead, UK over a period of 12months (2002-2003) were assessed prospectively. Mortality and morbidity predictions using the Portsmouth modification of the POSSUM algorithm (P-POSSUM) were compared to the actual outcomes. Performance of the model was also evaluated using the Hosmer and Lemeshow Chi square statistic (testing the goodness of fit).

Results: During this period 468 patients were assessed. The P-POSSUM appeared to over predict mortality rates for our patients. It predicted a 7% mortality rate for our patients compared to an observed rate of 2% (35 predicted deaths in comparison to 10 observed deaths), a difference that was statistically significant (H&L chi(2)=542.9, d.f. 8, p<0.05).

Conclusion: The P-POSSUM algorithm overestimates the risk of mortality for gynaecological oncology patients undergoing surgery. The P-POSSUM algorithm will require further adjustments prior to adoption for gynaecological cancer surgery as a risk adjusted surgical audit tool.

Publication types

  • Validation Study

MeSH terms

  • Female
  • Genital Neoplasms, Female / mortality
  • Genital Neoplasms, Female / surgery*
  • Hospital Mortality
  • Humans
  • Outcome Assessment, Health Care*
  • Postoperative Complications*
  • Risk Adjustment
  • Severity of Illness Index*